2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview 9-22-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and NFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)

Detroit Lions: 10.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ NFC North Winner +130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,200

Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC North Winner +230 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,800

Chicago Bears: 8.5 Over -160 Under +130 ~ NFC North Winner +280 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,500

Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ NFC North Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000

Coaching Changes

None

Team Previews

Detroit Lions: 14-6 ~  4-2 NFC North ~ 14-6-0 ATS ~ 13-7-0 O/U

Won the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Championship

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 11

Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, DE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Amik Robertson

Notable Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Josh Reynolds, G Jonah Jackson, DE Romeo Okwara, DE Julian Okwara, CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

Notable Draft Selections: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, OT Giovanni Manu, S Sione Vaki

It did not take head coach Dan Campbell very long to move this franchise in the right direction as he inherited a mess and went 3-13 in his first season but bounced right back with the Lions first winning record in four seasons by going 9-8 and then last season, they were on the verge of their first ever trip to the Super Bowl but a second half meltdown in the NFC Championship left them saying what could have been. There is no sulking as Detroit is still one of the favorites to win the NFC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and if the defense can take it a step forward, the Lions could be right there again. The division has improved as a whole as evidenced by the win totals and the NFC North odds but it will be Detroit's to lose. They extended the contracts of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two leaders of the offense that finished No. 6 in Offensive EPA and also No. 6 in both Rushing and Passing EPA. The former is due to the breakout season from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and along with David Montgomery, the Lions have one of the best back duos in the league that runs behind one of the better offensive lines. The defense allowed 45 fewer ypg than 2022 but allowed nearly the same amount of points as they had some good games but offset those with some poor efforts, allowing 28 or more points seven times. The Lions could not stop the pass but upgraded with two solid draft picks along with signing cornerback Carlton Davis.

Detroit was a public betting darling last year as following that 9-8 season in 2022, the Lions went from +12,500 that year to win the Super Bowl to +2,200 last year and now the Lions come in at +1,200 and will be heavily bet again following their first division title in 30 yards and that NFC Championship run. They do have the roster to make it happen but the value is shot. The Lions won the division by three games last season and it likely will be a lot closer this year but the odds are relatively the same, going from +135 to +130 so this could be the way to go. The schedule is not easy playing the NFC West and AFC South while the three crossover games are all against playoff teams from last season. Their 10.5 win total is the highest in franchise history.

Green Bay Packers: 10-9 ~  4-2 NFC North ~ 11-8-0 ATS ~ 11-8-0 O/U

Finished 2nd in the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 4

Notable Additions: RB Josh Jacobs, OT Andre Dillard, S Xavier McKinney, S Greg Joseph

Notable Losses: RB Aaron Jones, TE Joiah Deguara, OT David Bakhtiari, OT Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan, LB D’Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage, S Jonathan Owens

Notable Draft Selections: OT Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB/S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, S Evan Williams

The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay ended with a non-playoff season in 2022 and while it took new starting quarterback Jordan Love to find his footing last season, he ran with it once he did. The Packers opened 2-5 but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early in the Wild Card Round before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Love started slow as any first year starting quarterback usually does as he posted QB ratings of 88.0 and 65.4 in September and October but put up ratings of 103.1, 107.4 and 128.6 in November, December and January. He looked extremely comfortable down the stretch so maybe it is more about ability and talent and not so much teams not knowing what to expect. Can he keep it going with good but not great wide receivers? The three top receivers, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all talented but none are a true No. 1 but what they lack in fantasy value, they make up for in consistency and Love having the ability to mix and match to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers lost running back Aaron Jones to the Vikings but got Josh Jacobs as a replacement and he arguably has more upside. The defense finished No. 24 in EPA and while they allowed fewer than 20 points seven times, they gave up 30 or more five times and the offense could not bail them out in three of those. This is a quality young team but they do not have that it factor that other teams possess.

The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers. With the offense that was so young with first and second year starters, opponents simply did not have much on how to defend but with a year of film, teams should be more prepared. But to their own merit, they are a year older with more experience. Six of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams and the schedule takes a big jump up in strength so it will not be easy. Their three crossover games are against Philadelphia, Miami and New Orleans with none being true road games which helps. The win total seems too high  because everyone will only remember the late season surge.

Chicago Bears: 7-10 ~  2-4 NFC North ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 9-8-0 O/U

Finished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 29

Notable Additions: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, OT Jake Curhan, G Matt Pryor, C Ryan Bates, C Coleman Shelton, DE Jacob Martin, S Kevin Byard, S Jonathan Owens

Notable Losses: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Cody Whitehair, C Lucas Patrick, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, S Eddie Jackson

Notable Draft Selections: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegabjige, P Tory Taylor, DE Austin Booker

The Bears had their best season with quarterback Justin Fields in his three years but possessing the No. 1 overall draft pick, they decided to move in a different direction. It has been a lousy run for Chicago as it has been to the playoffs only twice since 2011 while finishing with a winning record only twice over that span as well. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well. Williams gives them a young talent who navigates the pocket and makes throws like a veteran and unlike most quarterbacks in Bears history, he will have a great group of receivers to throw to. Considering Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at the age of 24 already has more receiving yards than any player in Bears history, the optimism is real with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze possibly becoming one of the best trios in the league. Chicago has depth at running back after signing D'Andre Swift and this could turn into a potent offense as long as the offensive line can stay healthy which was a problem last season. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg. They will not be that good in 2024 but there is hope that a healthy bunch can do just enough to stay around.

While the public loves the Lions once again, they really love the Bears which forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of these odds. While the Bears may be better, the division as a whole is stronger and the Chicago numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and  NFC North odds while the win total has gone up. At +280 to win the division, this is the second lowest number since 2010 with the lowest being 2019 when they were +175 and finished third. This is a hard pass. The Bears are 1-9-1 to the under the last 11 seasons and now they are hit with their fourth highest win total over this stretch. They get the Rams, Commanders and Patriots in the crossover games but finding 9 wins seems aggressive. -114 to miss the playoffs could be the bet.

Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 ~  2-4 NFC North ~ 7-7-3 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U

Finished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 18

Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield, C Dan Feeney, DT Jerry Tillery, DE/OLB Jonathan Greenard, DE/OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Shaq Griffin

Notable Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Josh Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, WR K.J. Osborn, OT David Quessenberry, G Dalton Risner, DE Danielle Hunter, DE D.J. Wonnum, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Dean Lowry, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Troy Dye, K Greg Joseph

Notable Draft Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy, DE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson

The Vikings had high hopes last season coming off a 13-win season but that was a façade as they were the luckiest team in the NFL as they went 11-1 in one possession games during the regular season. Flash forward to last season, they opened 0-3, all one possession losses no less, and while they rallied to get to 4-4, quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achillies injury and they could not produce in the second half on the season, finishing on a 1-6 run, the lone win being a 3-0 snoozefest over Las Vegas. Now that Cousins is gone, Minnesota had to decide between Sam Darnold, who is playing for his fourth team in five years, or rookie J.J. McCarthy but it was unfortunately decided when McCarthy was lost for the season with a knee injury. Darnold does have one of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, a solid second option in Jordan Addison and a great tight end in T.J. Hockenson when he gets back to full health. The Vikings upgraded their running back by signing Aaron Jones away from Green Bay and they have a very solid offensive line. But is Darnold really the answer? The defense was horrible from 2020-2022 but they showed improvements last season, going from second worst in total defense to No. 16. Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone so the turnstile the defense has gone through from last season needs to find some players to step up in a highly offensive division.  Drafting Dallas Turner was a start.

The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off. This is because of Darnold who entered the league as a can't miss but he has been just that with his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here and he cannot carry a team on his shoulders into the postseason so every future bet is off the board especially when they are -355 to miss the playoffs. The Giants, Jets and Falcons are the crossovers so that is one win and trying to locate six others is a stretch. The under at plus money is a look.

2024 NFC East Overview and Betting Preview 9-16-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900

Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000

New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000

Coaching Changes

Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn In

Team Previews

Philadelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~  4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U

Finished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21

Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

Notable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin Evans

Notable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.

Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.

The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.

Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~  5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/U

Won the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12

Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric Kendricks

Notable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron Kearse

Notable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau

Dallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.

Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.

Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~  0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U

Finished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19

Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManus

Notable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee

Notable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey Slye

Washington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.

Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.

New York Giants: 6-11 ~  3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U

Finished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6

Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen Mills

Notable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinney

Notable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo Johnson

No team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.

While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.

2024 AFC West Overview and Betting Preview 9-13-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ AFC West Winner -260 ~ Super Bowl Winner +500

Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,500

Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000

Denver Broncos: 5.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +2,200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +30,000

Coaching Changes

Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Staley/Giff Smith Out ~ Jim Harbaugh In

Las Vegas Raiders: Josh McDaniels Out ~ Antonio Pierce In

Team Previews

Kansas City Chiefs: 15-6 ~  4-2 AFC West ~ 13-7-1 ATS ~ 7-13-1 O/U

Won AFC West, Won Super Bowl LVIII

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 16

Notable Additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Marquise Brown, TE Irv Smith

Notable Losses: WR Mecole Hardman, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OT Donovan Smith, G Nick Allegretti, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, P Tommy Townsend

Notable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley, S Jaden Hicks, C Hunter Nourzad

Kansas City is coming off its second consecutive Super Bowl victory and third over its last five years and the Chiefs are out to become the first ever Super Bowl three-peat Champion. They have made the playoffs nine consecutive seasons, which includes four Super Bowl appearances, while accumulating double-digit wins in all nine of those campaigns. Additionally, they have been to six consecutive AFC Championship games with the two losses coming by one possession so when the term dynasty is being thrown around, it fits here. Last year was probably the most impressive as the Chiefs had to deal with something they have not had to during this Super Bowl stretch as they were 8-1 at home in the postseason in those first four years with not having to play a road game but won two road games last season at Buffalo and Baltimore. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league.

With Kansas City seeking its unprecedented third straight Super Bowl, the odds are not in their favor simply based on probability because winning in this league is hard but the actual odds are not in their favor either as the Chiefs are +500 after coming into 2022 and 2023 at +1,000 and +600 respectively so there is no value with the number actually coming down. They are significant favorites to win the division with a publicly backed Chargers team likely being the only one that will challenge them. Barring any significant injuries, the Chiefs should win their ninth straight AFC West title. As for win totals, after going over eight straight seasons, Kansas City has stayed under in two of the last three, each missing the over by one win. Pass

Los Angeles Chargers: 5-12 ~  1-5 AFC West ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U

Finished 4th in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 27

Notable Additions: RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Poona Ford, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Troy Dye, CB Kristian Fulton

Notable Losses: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, C Will Clapp, DT Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Kenneth Murray, CB Michael Davis

Notable Draft Selections: OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe, CB Tarheeb Still, CB Cam Hart

The Chargers are one of the most intriguing teams heading into 2024. They have had the talent to make runs at Kansas City but have underachieved by making the playoffs just once in the last five years and that was a disaster, blowing a big lead against Jacksonville. Many blamed the coaching so now we will have a chance to see first-hand as Los Angeles hired Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his National Championship at Michigan, to lead one of the top young quarterbacks who really has not been given a chance. Justin Herbert was banged up last season and ended up missing four games while finishing with a career-low 20 touchdowns. Often proclaimed as one of the best offenses in the league, the Chargers fell off the last two seasons, averaging 33 ypg and 60 ypg less than 2021 and now they are replacing their top three playmakers in Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. They went through Baltimore to solve the running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards while hoping Quentin Johnson and Joshua Palmer can step up outside along with draft pick Ladd McConkey being a sneaky steal. Also, drafting Joe Alt was a curious move with other needs but it made sense as protecting Herbert and keeping him healthy is goal number one. Los Angeles relies on ends Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to lead their defense that clamped down over the second half of the season outside of that 63-point disaster against the Raiders, allowing 17.1 ppg in seven games around that.

The AFC West is playing the AFC North, which is not easy, but also the NFC South which could add a win or two to teams like the Chargers whose numbers seems inflated with the No. 27 schedule playing into that. The three crossover games are Arizona, Tennessee and New England so a 6-1 record is feasible and finding three wins in the AFC West and North should be more than doable. The Chargers have gone 5-0 to the under the last five years and while this is going to be very public, over 8.5 is the play if you do not mind the juice but a flat 9 can be found. Los Angeles has work to do to gel this offense and they only likely have to worry about Kansas City which is why the +350 to win the division is so low. Again public, but worth a sprinkle.

Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9 ~  4-2 AFC West ~ 10-5-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/U

Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 10

Notable Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins

Notable Losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Josh Jacobs, FB Jakob Johnson, WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, OT Brandon Parker, G Greg Van Roten, DT John Jenkins, DT Jerry Tillery, CB Amik Robertson

Notable Draft Selections: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg

One of the greatest franchises in the 70s and 80s has not been able to get out of its own way over the last two decades. Since losing to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002-03, the Raiders have made the playoffs only twice, losing both games in the Wild Card Round and they are now on their 13th different head coach since then with Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden being the only two to last three years. Antonio Pierce won the players over when stepping into the interim role last year after the firing of Josh McDaniels and he was given the full time job after a solid 5-4 performance. Las Vegas will be breaking in a new quarterback as Gardner Minshew won the starting job over Aiden O’Connell and this is an offense that could struggle. Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the league but there continued to be trade rumors as he wants out. The other two main options are going to be Jakobi Meyers and first round pick tight end Brock Bowers so there is not a whole lot to be excited about while the running game lost Josh Jacobs and has no suitable replacement. If nothing else, Minshew is fun to watch and will give everything he has but he makes too many mistakes to make them a consistent winner. The defense carried the team last season and nearly gave them a shot to make the postseason. The Raiders finished No. 7 in Defensive EPA and in the nine games under Pierce, they allowed only 16 ppg and added defensive end Christian Wilkins will have to step it up again.

This is going to be another tough team to figure out until we can see how this offense is going to be. We know the defense is going to be really good but there were seven losses last season where the offense scored 17 or fewer points and even great defenses cannot overcome that. Las Vegas is catching the same number as last season which it surpassed and has done so in four of the last five seasons. They got the Rams, Dolphins and Jaguars in their crossover games, the first two on the road, and it is as straight forward of a schedule as there can be with seven road losses and six home wins so there are four swing games that will come into play, home against the Chiefs and the Chargers and at Denver and Tampa Bay. Another pass.

Denver Broncos: 8-9 ~  3-3 AFC West ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U

Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 20

Notable Additions: WR Josh Reynolds, OT Matt Peart, G Calvin Throckmorton, C Sean Mustipher, DT John Franklin-Myers, DT Malcolm Roach, LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones

Notable Losses: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Cameron Fleming, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, S Justin Simmons, S Kareem Jackson

Notable Draft Selections: QB Bo Nix, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Driane, RB Audric Estime

While it was not a resounding success, Denver rallied from a 1-5 start to win seven of their last 11 games for an 8-9 finish that does seem to being taken too serious from oddsmakers. We are finally seeing a season where Denver is not being overvalued as they usually are because of their name as the Broncos Super Bowl odds are pegging them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, Denver has not been back to the playoffs and has now had a losing record in six consecutive seasons under four different head coaches so there has not been any sort of culture put into place. Head coach Sean Payton did get his team to rally last season, that is other than quarterback Russell Wilson who eventually got benched and got out of town, moving onto Pittsburgh. Now it will be a rookie running the offense as Bo Nix won the starting job over Jarrett Stidham thanks to a solid preseason but he does not have a true No. 1 to throw to as Cortland Sutton and Marvin Mims looking like his two best options. The offensive line is weak and the running game will rely on Javonte Williams who does not look like he is back to 100 percent. The defense regressed considerably last season as the Broncos finished No. 27 in EPA and No. 29 in yards allowed. While it would be nice to have a stout defense help carry a rookie quarterback until he can find his footing, that is not the case here as they could be worse as starting star safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are gone.

As mentioned, the odds are not in their favor with low expectations unless you are actually betting on Denver because there are some value numbers but it could be a waste. Also mentioned is how the Broncos have been overvalued based on name and they have gone 0-7-1 to the under the last eight seasons which coincides with that last playoff appearance. They were 8.5 last year and are down to 5.5 this season which is a big drop and the problem is that their winnable games are all early and that is not good with a brand new quarterback and a bad defense. A 4-4 start is possible but unlikely and a 0-9 finish is possible with home games against the Falcons and Colts being the best of the bunch. This team has under written all over them once again.

2024 AFC South Overview and Betting Preview 9-7-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Houston Texans: 9.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ AFC South Winner +105 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,600
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Over -110 Under -110 ~ AFC South Winner +250 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000
Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ AFC South Winner +340 ~ Super Bowl Winner +7,500
Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Over +110 Under -135 ~ AFC South Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000

Coaching Changes
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel Out ~ Brian Callahan In

Team Previews

Houston Texans: 11-8 ~  4-2 AFC South ~ 10-9-0 ATS ~ 7-11-1 O/U
Won AFC South, Lost in the AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 5

Notable Additions: RB Joe Mixon, WR Stefon Diggs, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Folo Fatukasi, DT Denico Autry, DT Mario Edwards, DT Tim Settle, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB C.J. Henderson, S Lonnie Johnson, P Tommy Townsend

Notable Losses: RB Devin Singletary, OT George Fant, OT Josh Jones, C Michael Deiter, DE Jonathan Greenard, DE Jerry Hughes, DT Maliek Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Hassan Ridgeway, LB Blake Cashman, LB Denzel Perryman, CB Steve Nelson, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Kareem Jackson, S Eric Murray, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Draft Selections: CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher, S Caden Bullock, TE Cade Stover

Coming into last season, Houston was the longshot to win the AFC South with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback and it was not a good start as the Texans started the season 0-2 then won six of their next eight games to gain some traction and took out Tennessee and Indianapolis in their final two games to win the division. Those initial two losses were the only consecutive defeats on the season and they carried the momentum into the playoffs with a blowout win over Cleveland before getting smacked at Baltimore but it was a still a successful season with a very bright future. Quarterback C.J. Stroud looked like a rookie in the season opener against Baltimore but the future NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year did not play like it after, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. His completion percentage of 63.9 percent needs to improve but he finished with a 100.8 passer rating and that was with losing his top receiver late in the season. Tank Dell is now healthy and they acquired Stefon Diggs to group with Nico Collins to form a great trio. Houston also added running back Joe Mixon to run behind a solid offensive line. The Texans also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA. There was a lot of turnover on this side so it could be a wait and see how the unit reacts. The schedule is backloaded in strength so the Texans have the ability to get off to another great start.

With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season which they cashed in Week 13. The schedule has some good but mostly bad to it as Houston has most of their winnable games early so they can get some momentum going. Their crossover games are against the AFC East and NFC North so that is not easy as is the fact the other three non-division games are Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore. Indianapolis and Jacksonville both could be better so getting to 10 wins might not happen. There is no value to win the division at +105 and the fact that the Texans Super Bowl odds are the seventh lowest shows no value there either. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8 ~  4-2 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U
Finished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 9

Notable Additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, C Mitch Morse, DT Arik Armstead, OLB Trevis Gipson, CB Ronald Darby, S Darnell Savage, K Joey Slye

Notable Losses: QB C.J. Beathard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Tyler Shatley, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, DE Dawuane Smoot, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins

Notable Draft Selections: WR Brian Thomas, DT Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, OT Javon Foster, DT Jordan Jefferson, CB Deantre Prince

Jacksonville was one of the bigger disappointments in the AFC last season, not necessarily because it missed the playoffs but because it was the overwhelming division favorite at -155. The Jaguars started just fine at 8-3 but imploded late as they lost five of their last six games to finish 9-8 for a second straight season but last year was just not good enough for a second straight AFC South title. The division looks to be wide open again and Jacksonville could be the team to break away with quarterback Trevor Lawrence healthy and hoping to stay that way unlike last season. He basically threw for the same amount of yards with the same completion percentage as 2022 but threw four fewer touchdowns and six more interceptions. He will have a partially new receiver room with problematic Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones both gone while getting Gabe Davis from Buffalo and drafting Brian Thomas from LSU to compliment Christian Kirk. The offensive line was upgraded which is important to keep Lawrence on the field. The defense has remained steady each of the last few years in yards allowed but that is not a good thing as it has been below average, finishing No. 16 in Defensive EPA last season. They have made improvements, notably signing defensive tackle Arik Armstead from San Francisco to form a very strong defensive line which will help the secondary. The Jaguars allowed 29.2 ppg over those final five losses while posting a shutout in that lone victory but that was against Carolina. 

As mentioned, this could be the team that has breakaway potential in the AFC South but the schedule is once again going against them as it is every year with their London trips. The Jaguars have only seven true home games and their home field is not great to begin with which has had a lot to do with them not being able to get over the win total in recent years. Jacksonville has gone 13-3 to the under the last 16 seasons with a lot of that putting bad teams on the field but also with their abnormal schedules. Still, if they can get out of the first five weeks with a winning record before going to London, the over is in play. They are definitely worth a look at +250 in the South but past that, there is not enough to love for them to make a long run. 

Indianapolis Colts: 9-8 ~  3-3 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 10-6-1 O/U
Finished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 22

Notable Additions: QB Joe Flacco, DT Raekwon Davis

Notable Losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DE Jacob Martin

Notable Draft Selections: DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT/G Matt Goncalves, G/C Tanor Bortolini, KR Anthony Gould, S/LB Jaylon Carlies

Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. They went on to lose their next three games not because of the quarterback but because the defense allowed 37, 39 and 38 points. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. They left a lot on the table last season as they averaged only 23 ppg despite accumulating their most yardage in four years. Obviously, there is the concern with Richardson but he cannot be tabbed an oft-injured quarterback just yet and his ceiling looks exceptionally high. That aforementioned three-game stretch from the defense potentially kept them out of the playoffs but those were an aberration as they allowed 30 points only one time in their final nine games. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. 

Oddsmakers liked what they saw last season from Richardson and as the team as whole fighting through adversity as all of their odds are lower than last season with their win total two games higher. What also is on their side is a very easy schedule as they play the AFC East and NFC North like the other three teams but their three crossover games are all winnable against the Steelers, Broncos and Giants. There are enough other wins out there as well despite nine road games as they get Buffalo, Detroit and Miam at home so one upset there and a 4-2 division record should get them to double digits. At +350, the Colts have the best value to win the division and that is where our bet is, we just have to hope Richardson stays on the field. 

Tennessee Titans: 6-11 ~  1-5 AFC South ~ 7-9-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 23

Notable Additions: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Saahdiq Charles, C Lloyd Cushenberry, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kenneth Murray, CB L’Jarius Sneed, CB Chidobe Awuzie

Notable Losses: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Nick Westbrook, OT Andre Dillard, OT Chris Hubbard, C Aaron Brewer, DE Denicco Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Kristian Fulton, S Terrell Edmunds

Notable Draft Selections: OT J.C. Latham, NT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedric Gray, CB Jarvis Brownlee

After six straight winning seasons, the Titans have endured back-to-back losing seasons but they were not complete disasters at 7-10 and 6-11 yet they were enough to cost head coach Mike Vrabel his job which was the most surprising firing in the offseason. Tennessee hired Brian Callahan who served as the Bengals offensive coordinator the last five seasons and he brings in a good pedigree as he is the son of Bill Callahan who also came over to coach the offensive line. The offense has regressed considerably the last few seasons but age has played into that with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry having their best years behind them and both are now gone. The offense has been upgraded along the offensive line which is a big step in the progress of quarterback Will Levis who showed he can succeed in this league but he needs more consistency. The Titans also signed receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, so along with DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has a very solid group to throw to. They replaced Henry with Tony Pollard who can flourish as the No. 1 back, something he never got to consistently do while in Dallas. The defense actually graded out worse last season as Tennessee finished No. 25 in Defensive EPA as it was horrible against the pass at No. 28. They signed two top cornerbacks to shore up the secondary and while they lost defensive end Denicco Autry, the line will be fine with Harold Landry and Jeffrey Simmons but the linebackers have to step up. 

This team looks to be unbettable in the futures market with the unknown Levis in control. He threw four touchdowns in his first start against the Falcons but threw only four touchdowns in his other eight games after that combined. That is not the game log you want to see from a quarterback to bet over their win total, and the 6.5 does seem to be inflated even at plus money. The schedule is affecting the total with a doable backend where a 5-5 record is plausible but the frontend is a beast where a 0-7 start is not out of the question as they will be underdogs in all seven games so the under looks safe but not at -375. If a win bet is absolutely needed, DraftKings is offering Exact 6 wins at +370 so that could be fun for a sprinkle instead of l

2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview 8-31-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000

Coaching Changes
None

Team Previews

Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~  3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2

Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board

Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone

Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa

Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds. 

The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open. 

Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~  1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17

Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell

Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott

Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton

The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road.

The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch.

Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~  3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round 
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1

Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown

Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon

Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter

Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams. 

Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~  5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round 
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3

Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal

Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick

The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy. 

Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go. 

2024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview 8-30-24

By Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and AFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Over +130 Under -155 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,500
New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,000
Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135 Under -180 ~ AFC East Winner +200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,200
New England Patriots: 4.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ AFC East Winner +2,500 ~ Super Bowl Winner +18,000

Coaching Changes
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick Out ~ Jerod Mayo In

Team Previews

Buffalo Bills: 12-7 ~  4-2 AFC East ~ 8-10-1 ATS ~ 8-11-0 O/U
Won AFC East, Lost in AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 7

Notable Additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, OT La'el Collins, C Will Clapp, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow, S Mike Edwards

Notable Losses: QB Kyle Allen, RB Damien Harris, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Trent Sherfield, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Linval Joseph, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Tre'Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer

Notable Draft Selections: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedric Van Pran

Buffalo won its fifth consecutive AFC East title last season but also coming off its fifth consecutive season of playoff disappointment. The Bills have won their last four Wild Card Round games but have dropped their last three Divisional Round games, all at home, including a devastating 27-24 loss to Kansas City last season. While not a complete rebuild around quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has replaced many pieces from these past teams, notably receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse and most of their starting secondary and this fresh start could be just what they need. Injuries hurt them throughout the season, mostly on the defense but the Bills still finished No. 8 in Defensive EPA and they allowed more than 24 points only four times. Those injuries could actually help going into this season with other players stepping up and gaining needed experience and winning jobs. Buffalo has already sustained a tough loss as All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will miss about half the season with a bicep tear after missing a big chunk of last season as well. The offense took off after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady was promoted and now having a full offseason and training camp, he will have them ready. The receiving corps will have a whole new look and after finishing No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA, this group will be the wild card of how the offense continues to be productive. 

We do not see any value in betting the 10.5 wins as a revamped roster along with a tough schedule will make it tough getting to 11 wins and we have no interest laying -155 on the under. The Bills have dropped to AFC East co-favorites with the Jets and it will be important to get through the first seven games with at least a 5-2 record as their next seven games are all against teams that had winning records last season including five double-digit winners. Buffalo is tied with the Eagles for the sixth lowest Super Bowl odds at +1,500 but this is the highest they have been since 2020 when they were +3,000 (+900, +600 and +1,100 the last three years) so there could be value there this season banking on the fact they are not overhyped and will not be over bet. 

New York Jets: 7-10 ~  2-4 AFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 14

Notable Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, CB Isaiah Oliver

Notable Losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead

Notable Draft Selections: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen

The Jets have not made the playoff since 2010, the longest active drought in the NFL at 13 seasons and that was all supposed to change last season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers signing with New York but those aspirations lasted four plays into the season when he went down with a torn Achillies and was lost for the season. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA. Rodgers is back to full health but he is 41 years old and that injury risk is always there. The Jets shored up the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith but he too is an injury waiting to happen. Garrett Wilson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and they are hoping Mike Williams can strengthen the unit but again, he is an injury risk coming off a torn ACL. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA  thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. The lingering issue is newly acquired Haason Reddick who still has not signed and has requested a trade but if they can work this out, this will again be one of the best units in the AFC. If Rodgers can stay healthy, this team can be very dangerous. A big if though. 

The Jets have the same win total as last season at 9.5 but it is more juiced at -155 compared to -125 in 2023 and this is risky bet based on many of the players they are relying on having had prior injury issues. It is a middle of the pack schedule with the possibility of 11-12 wins if everything goes right but in the NFL, we can never count on that. New York has shorter odds to win the division than they did last season with the retooled Buffalo roster having an impact on that. Again, this is another bet that will come down to the health of the roster. The Jets are +138 to miss the playoffs and that is an interesting bet to hedge with the +2,000 to win the Super Bowl as it would be a small win if they do not with a chance to still hedge in the playoffs if they do. 

Miami Dolphins: 11-7 ~  4-2 AFC East ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC East, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 24

Notable Additions: TE Jonnu Smith, OT Jack Driscoll, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Benito Jones, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer

Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, CB Eli Apple, S Brandon Jones, S Jerome Baker

Notable Draft Selections: DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara

Miami opened the season 5-1 with an offense that could not be stopped with the lone loss over that stretch coming at Buffalo and that was a sign of things to come. Those five wins were all against non-playoff teams and of their 11 total victories, a two-point win over Dallas was the Dolphins only one against a team that made the postseason. They face an easy schedule for a second place team as they play 10 games against non-playoff teams from last season but of the other seven games, five of those are on the road. Possibly more important, they have only one home game at 1:00 prior to October 27 so they cannot take advantage of the heat and humidity edge hurting the opponents. Like many teams, the Dolphins offense was hurt by injuries with wide receiver Tyreke Hill being banged up in the second half of the season and the offensive line absolutely getting crushed. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the one surprise that remained healthy and he led the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards but he does have a past. Miami has one of the best duo running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The defense was just average and by the end of the season, they were too banged up to make any sort of playoff run. They lost Jaelan Phillips and Jalen Ramsey at different points so staying healthy will be a big part of improving their No. 15 Defensive EPA from last season. They lost tackle Christian Wilkins, end Andrew Van Ginkel and linebacker Jerome Baker so there are holes to fill. 

The Dolphins are with the Jets at 9.5 wins but at smaller odds which could make them the more tempting take if deciding between the two. The intangible is their home/road splits with the schedule as they have one additional road game and have no home advantage in September and early October. Miami is slightly behind the Jets and Bills at +200 and this is where the value could lie as they are sort of the forgotten team in the mix even though they were +300 last year and +475 in 2022. The Dolphins have roughly the same odds as last season to win the conference and the Super Bowl and with their roster, they arguably have the highest ceiling in the division so a sprinkle on both of those could be the way to go. 

New England Patriots: 4-13 ~  2-4 AFC East ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 8

Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins

Notable Losses: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills

Notable Draft Selections: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker

It has been a quick descent for the Patriots as they are coming off a 4-13 season which was their worst record since going 2-14 back in 1992. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1999-2000 and you can pretty much assure that the streak will hit three seasons. Now they will play their first season without head coach Bill Belichick as his tenure in New England has come to an end after 24 seasons. It will be up Jerod Mayo to put a competitive team on the field with very little to work with and playing in a very strong division. The offense was atrocious as the Patriots finished No. 31 in Offensive EPA and the Mac Jones era is over after a short stint. New England hopes they did not draft a Jones clone in quarterback Drake Maye but he will likely serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Whoever gets the nod does not have a clear No. 1 receiver to throw to as Kendrick Bourne is the top guy but is coming off a torn ACL and will not be 100 percent. The offensive line is a mess which could hinder the production of Rhamondre Stevenson. New England was actually solid on defense as they were No. 9 in EPA and that unit will be the only thing that keeps them somewhat competitive. This does not look like a last place schedule as outside of playing the AFC East and AFC South, the crossover games feature six of seven games against opponents that should be right in the playoff mix with Arizona being the lone exception although the Cardinals will be much improved. 

The oddsmakers are not seeing much improvement as they have put a 4.5-win total on them after not coming close to the 7.5-win total placed on them last season. After going 8-0-2 to the over from 2010-2019, New England has gone under three of the last four years, eclipsing the total by just a half-game in 2021. The schedule is pretty brutal and with plus money next to the under, that would be the way to go as they are likely to be underdogs in every game this season. As far as any division, conference or Super Bowl bets, save your cash. DraftKings does have the Patriots at +2,500 to go 0-17, along with the Broncos and Panthers, and while any team going winless is getting less likely in this league, this could be the one team to do it. 

2024 Sun Belt Conference Preview 8-28-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and SBC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Appalachian State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+275 SBC Winner
Texas State: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+400 SBC Winner
James Madison: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 SBC Winner
Louisiana: 7.5 Over -140 Under +120/+600 SBC Winner
Coastal Carolina: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135/+1,600 SBC Winner
South Alabama: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125/+850 SBC Winner
Troy: 6.5 Over +100 Under -120/+1,500 SBC Winner
Marshall: 6 Over +110 Under -130/+1,600 SBC Winner
Arkansas State: 5.5 Over -170 Under +140/+1,500 SBC Winner
Georgia Southern: 5.5 Over +120 Under -140/+2,200 SBC Winner
Georgia State: 4.5 Over +130 Under -155/+5,000 SBC Winner
Old Dominion: 4.5 Over +120 Under -140/+3,000 SBC Winner
Southern Miss: 4.5 Over +150 Under -185/+4,000 SBC Winner
Louisiana-Monroe: 2.5 Over +135 Under -160/+40,000 SBC Winner

Coaching Changes

Georgia State: Shawn Elliott Out ~ Dell McGee In
South Alabama: Kane Wommack Out ~ Major Applewhite In
James Madison: Curt Cignetti Out ~ Bob Chesney In
Louisiana Monroe: Terry Bowden Out ~ Bryant Vincent In
Troy: Jon Sumrall Out ~ Gerad Parker In

Appalachian State Mountaineers 9-5 ~ 6-3 SBC ~ 6-7-1 ATS ~ 7-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

It has been a very consistent run for Appalachian St. which has never had a losing season since entering the FBS in 2014 and the only two times it was not bowl eligible was its first probation season and in 2022 when two of its wins were against FCS opponents. The Mountaineers have been to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in two of the last three years but have yet to win one for head coach Shawn Clark who is now in his fifth season, compiling a 34-18 record and he will be a sought out commodity if they are successful again which we expect they should be and are slight favorites despite the third straight seasons of retuning just 11 total starters. The offense has been steady, averaging at least 33.2 ppg every year since 2017 and the Mountaineers bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Joey Aguilar who passed for 3,757 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has his top four receivers coming back but the offensive line has just one starter back. The defense has regressed each of the last two seasons but there should be improvements with six starters back and a much better front seven. They get Clemson, East Carolina and Liberty in the nonconference slate and four of their five toughest SBC games are on the road so it will not be easy.

Texas State Bobcats 8-5 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9

Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. It was safe to say things might gain traction under first year head coach G.J. Kinne when the Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. After losing to Coastal Carolina and Arkansas St. following becoming bowl eligible, the latter a 77-31 defeat which was the Red Wolves only SBC win last season, Texas St. rolled in its last two games to bring momentum into this season. The Bobcats had Auburn transfer T.J. Finley last season and he was one of the best quarterbacks in the SBC and now they bring in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who was just as good. Overall, nine starters are back including top receiver and running back and four of five offensive linemen. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA and Arizona St. will present a challenge in the nonconference and they miss the top five SBC teams from the East Division while having only four true road games.

James Madison Dukes 11-2 ~ 7-1 SBC ~ 8-5-0 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3

It has been a seamless transition from the FCS to the FBS for James Madison as it has gone a combined 19-5 in its two seasons. The shift to a new division however meant a probationary period as James Madison could not compete for a conference championship for two years, and it would have been in the SBC Championship Game both seasons, and could not go to a bowl game in the initial season. The Dukes were able to get to a bowl game last season where they lost to Air Force 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl but the probation status is over and they can finally play for something real. The problem is, they lost so much from the sidelines, they might not have the talent in a very deep and top heavy East Division. Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a lot with him as overall, James Madison has only seven starters back. Former Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney had a lot of success there and looks to keep the program rolling but it might take a season to come together. Quarterback Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas St. while the six top receivers and four top running backs are gone. On defense, the entire line will be new. A 3-1 nonconference record is possible and they get the two bottom teams from the West Division but they should struggle in the East.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-7-1 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Louisiana had to vacate 22 wins from 2011-2014 due to falsifying ACT scores for five players so four consecutive 9-4 seasons turned into a 14-16 combined stretch and it took time to recover but Bill Napier and finished his last three seasons 34-5 before heading to Florida. Michael Desormeaux took over in 2022 and was saddled with little to work with as he inherited 11 returning starters and the Cajuns had just 10 starters back last season. They went 6-7 both years, the losing records due to bowl losses, so in actuality, it was not all that bad given the situation and now in his third season, his systems and players are in place to get back to making title runs. Louisiana brings back seven starters on offense that was actually very effective last season despite injuries at the quarterback position where three were used. One of those was Chandler Fields who started four games and was very solid in his limited action. The Cajuns have to replace some key playmakers but have the top offensive line in the SBC. They have taken a big step back defensively the last two years but have eight starters back and should show significant improvement. The Cajuns have Tulane and Wake Forest out of conference and while they catch Appalachian St. they get them at home but do have to go to Texas St.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-5 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 9-4-0 ATS ~ 4-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

The Chanticleers entered the FBS in 2017 and it took three years to find their footing but then they took off. The 2020 COVID season was out of sorts for many but Coastal Carolina was not affected as it went 11-0 before losing to Liberty 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl and it followed that up with an 11-2 mark in 2021. They have fallen off slightly the last two seasons but not much as they have gone a combined 17-9, however this could be a trying one for head coach Tim Beck who enters his second season. The offense stayed consistent with 2022 despite the fact the Chanticleers lost All-SBC quarterback Grayson McCall for the entire second half of the season. He has departed and there is a camp battle between Ethan Vasko, who started four games last season and Michigan St. transfer Noah Kim. They do lose their top two receivers but their top two running backs return as does three starters from the offensive line and Beck has an offensive past so they should be just fine. Only six starters are back on defense but only five came back last year and they improved by 8.0 ppg so this unit should not regress too much. A 3-1 nonconference mark is possible with the opener at Jacksonville St. being a swing game but the loaded East Division could be their undoing and they face Louisiana from the West.

South Alabama Jaguars 7-6 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3

South Alabama played its first ever football game in 2009 as an unclassified program, became a member of the FCS for just one season in 2011 and then entered the FBS and the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. The Jaguars did not have a single winning season in its first 10 years but they went 10-3 in 2022 and then went 7-6 last season so head coach Kane Wommack had this team headed in the right direction but he bolted for Alabama to become the defensive coordinator. South Alabama promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to become the head coach and he has had head coaching success at Houston and as the OC here, the offense improved in each of his three years. They will be fine system-wise but personnel wise is a different story with only four starters back as they lose their quarterback along with a 1,000-yard plus running back and a 1,000-yard plus receiver. It looks to be up to redshirt freshman quarterback Gio Lopez to lead the unit. The defense could be worse off with only three starters back, two of which reside in the secondary so the front seven is nearly a total rebuild and there will be a big drop-off from its 21 ppg allowed. The schedule is a tough one with a possible 1-3 nonconference mark and in the SBC, they draw Appalachian St. out of the East on the road.

Troy Trojans 11-3 ~ 8-1 SBC ~ 8-6-0 ATS ~ 6-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 2

Troy was at the top of the SBC from 2016-2018 where it went 20-4 (31-8 overall) but head coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia and Chip Lindsey was hired but failed to produce a winning record in three seasons. Kentucky defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall was hired in 2022 and led to Trojans to a 12-2 record which included an 11-game winning streak to end the season after a 1-2 start and he followed that up with an 11-3 record last season and his two seasons included a pair of SBC Championship Game victories. He took off for Tulane and Troy hired Gerad Parker who was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame and his first year will be a challenge as the Trojans have only two starters back on each side of the ball. They took a huge hit on offense as they lose a 3rd Team All-SBC quarterback, a 1,661-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver so it will be up to Goose Crowder, who attempted only 13 passes last season, to take over behind an inexperienced line. Troy allowed 17.1 ppg each of the last two seasons but lose their entire defensive line and secondary so this could be big regression year. The nonconference slate includes games at Memphis and at Iowa and within the SBC, they avoid Appalachian St. from the East but face three teams in a four-game stretch coming off their bye week.

Marshall Thundering Herd 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 4-9-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

Marshall is coming off its first losing season since 2016 as it went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could have been worse though as the Thundering Herd opened the season 4-0 but then lost its next five games, the last four by double digits and they could have cashed it in but won two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. While a losing season is never good to reflect on, the fact Marshall has gone to a bowl game in 10 of the last 11 years is very impressive for a team from a non-power conference where there is always shuffling between top and bottom and it is still something to build on. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd are hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis can provide a spark but there is not much around him. The defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 but it was a new system and even with only five starters back, they should improve. Following a likely 2-2 nonconference record, they host Appalachian St. and also get to face the four worst teams in the SBC so the slate could save them.

Arkansas State Red Wolves 3-9 ~ 1-7 SBC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 6

Arkansas St. went through five head coaches in five years from 2010-2014 with the last four all having success and eventually moving on. That included Blake Anderson who had six straight winning seasons before the 4-7 COVID year and he then left for Utah St. and the Red Wolves made another big hire in Butch Jones yet it did not start out well with a 5-19 record in his first two seasons but he got them bowl eligible last year before losing to Northern Illinois 21-19 in the Camellia Bowl. Now is the time to bring the big winning years back as everything is in place with the most experienced team in the conference and the fifth most experienced team in the country. The Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense with the right guard only needing to be replaced. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was named the SBC Freshman of the Year after a solid season and will only get better as they should surpass 30 ppg after averaging 27.1 ppg in 2023. The defense has only six starters back but all 11 starters are either juniors or seniors so expect a big improvement on this side of the ball after allowing over 30 ppg each of the last five years. Michigan and Iowa St. are losses outside the SBC and while the two tough West games against Texas St. and Louisiana are on the road, they get ODU and Georgia St. from the East.

Georgia Southern Eagles 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 8

Georgia Southern had its most successful season since coming into the FBS and the SBC in 2014 when it went 10-3 in 2018 under head coach Chad Lunsford but even after two more winning seasons following that, he was fired the next season after just four games following a 1-3 start. The Eagles were able to make a big hire as they snagged former USC head coach Clay Helton in 2022 and while it has been an average start with a pair of 6-7 seasons, brand new systems were put into place on both sides and those take time so this could be the breakout year they have been looking forward to for a while. The offense brings back only five starters after having eight return in each of the previous two seasons but there is a lot of talent and experience. It will be up to quarterback JC French to continue to lead a potent spread passing attack. The offensive line is weak and will have to learn quickly on the fly but four of the projected starters know the system. Eight starters are back on defense that has not been great but they are loaded up front and can make a big move up the rankings. It is a tough nonconference slate but they get Boise St. at home and arguably their four toughest conference games are all at home and the get the two worst teams in the East on the road.

Georgia State Panthers 7-6 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

It was a rough start for Georgia St. in its first four years at the FBS level where it went 10-39. After spending seven years in South Carolina, Georgia St. hired Shawn Elliott as their head coach in 2017 and while there were some ups and downs, he produced five winning records in his seven seasons before resigning in February to go back to South Carolina. He did leave on a winning note as after starting 6-1, the Panthers lost their last five regular season games but defeated Utah St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl. New head coach Dell McGee spent the last eight years at Georgia as the run game coordinator and he comes into a tough situation. Georgia St. is No. 113 in the country in experience and brings back only four offensive starters. The Eagles lose quarterback Darren Grainger who is No. 2 in passing yards in program history as well as their top receiver and top running back. Additionally, four offensive line starters have to be replaced. They are better off on defense but not by much as they lose three of their top five tacklers and they do have significant holes on all three levels while breaking in a new system with a new defensive coordinator. The nonconference schedule is not bad but the SBC schedule is brutal with all four road games against contenders in their divisions.

Old Dominion Monarchs 6-7 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but did make it to a bowl game the following year and again last season but lost both of those. It is a good building block but they bring back only 10 starters although they brought back just nine starters last season and were the fifth least experienced team in the country yet went to a bowl game so strange things can happen. The problem this year is that they face the second toughest schedule in the conference. Six starters are back on offense led by quarterback Grant Wilson who was fairly solid and should be better after 11 starts. Three running backs rushed for 606, 609 and 637 yards and he was one of those with the other two gone. The defense has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year. They face four nonconference teams that are likely to go bowling so an 0-4 start runs into back-to-back road games. They get Appalachian St. on the road and have to face two of the top teams from the West.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles 3-9 ~ 2-6 SBC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Southern Miss opened last season with a win over Alcorn St. of the FCS and then went on to lose its next seven games, five of those by double digits but there was no quit as the Golden Eagles won their next two games despite no chance to go to a bowl before getting blown out by Mississippi St. and Troy to end the season. Despite some solid teams over the years, they have reached 10 wins only once since 1989 and have won exactly three games in three of the last four seasons. This is the fourth season for head coach Will Hall and he is likely on the hot seat but his one saving grace is that he brought in the best recruiting class of any team in the SBC so that could string on another year if thing do not go completely right. Southern Miss brings back just four starters on offense and it loses their starting quarterback but that is not a bad thing. They brought in Florida St. transfer Tate Rodemaker who does not have a ton of experience but played with and against great talent. The defense regressed by over 12 ppg last season as they were crushed by injuries but they got more experience from that which will help this season. Southern Miss has a chance to go 3-1 in nonconference games and the SBC is not too bad as they miss Appalachian St. and do not face a single team off a bye.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 2-10 ~ 0-8 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6

Louisiana-Monroe has been a bottom feeder in the SBC since joining in 2001 as it has won five or more games only four times and none one not time since 2012 which was the only season they have ever been to a bowl game. The recent stretch has been brutal as the Warhawks went 0-10 in the 2020 COVID year and followed that up with a pair of 4-8 campaigns. Last season, they opened 2-0 including a win over Army but closed the season with 10 straight losses and ended up getting doubled up in scoring margin (17.3-34.9). Louisiana-Monroe is just 5-26 in the conference over this four-year stretch and it is not going to get much better this year. Head coach Terry Bowden could not turn things around and now it is up to Bryant Vince who has one year of head coaching experience when he went 7-6 at UAB as an interim head coach. The offense brings back their leading rusher and one offensive lineman and that is it. The quarterback situation is a mess and their leading retuning receiver had only 71 yards last season. The defense was abysmal and there is not enough talent to muster any improvement to make up for the offense. Making it worse, they are at Texas and Auburn and they will be significant underdogs in every SBC game. A game against FCS Jackson St. to open the season could be the only win.

2024 Southeastern Conference Preview 8-25-24

BY Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and SEC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Georgia: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/+190 SEC Winner
Texas: 10.5 Over +150 Under -180/+320 SEC Winner
Ole Miss: 9.5 Over -115 Under -105/+650 SEC Winner
Alabama: 9.5 Over +120 Under -140/+750 SEC Winner
LSU: 9 Over -120 Under +100/+1,000 SEC Winner
Missouri: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+1,800 SEC Winner
Tennessee: 8.5 Over -170 Under +145/+1,600 SEC Winner
Texas A&M: 8.5 Over -120 Under +100/+1,400 SEC Winner
Auburn: 7.5 Over +125 Under -145/+6,000 SEC Winner
Oklahoma: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+3,000 SEC Winner
Kentucky: 6.5 Over -115 Under -105/+10,000 SEC Winner
Arkansas: 4.5 Over -110 Under -110/+25,000 SEC Winner
Florida: 4.5 Over -155 Under +130/+12,000 SEC Winner
South Carolina: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105/+12,000 SEC Winner
Mississippi State: 4 Over -150 Under +130/+40,000 SEC Winner
Vanderbilt: 3 Over -125 Under +105/+100,000 SEC Winner

Coaching Changes

Alabama: Nick Saban Out ~ Kalen DeBoer In
Mississippi St.: Zach Arnett Out ~ Jeff Lebby In
Texas A&M: Jimbo Fisher Out ~ Mike Elko In

Georgia Bulldogs 13-1 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

Georgia was cruising along as it posted a perfect 12-0 regular season and was well on its way to try and win a third straight National Championship but was upset by Alabama 27-24 which knocked it out of the top four and put the Tide into the CFP. Georgia is the epitome of a team that reloads instead of rebuilds and that is the case again this season. They brought back 13 starters in 2021 and 10 starters in 2022 in their championship seasons while last season they had 13 starters back and were once again No. 1 throughout the season. The Bulldogs bring back 14 starters, their most since 2017, and they come in as the favorite once again. Quarterback Carson Beck will be a Heisman Trophy favorite and while they need to replace their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers, they will be just fine, especially having one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense allowed its most points since 2000, but giving up 15.6 ppg is still pretty darn good and they will be better with seven starters back and they are loaded. They are stacked at all three levels and have the potential to match the 2021 unit. They open with Clemson, their only true nonconference test, while the SEC is no cakewalk with an early game at Alabama and later games at Texas and Mississippi.

Texas Longhorns 12-2 ~ 8-1 Big 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Texas is in its inaugural season in the SEC and while it is a significant upgrade from the Big 12, the Longhorns are expected to give Georgia all it can handle to claim the SEC. Their only regular season loss was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on a last second touchdown but they still made it to the CFP where they had a chance to beat Washington but failed with three straight incompletions in the final seconds from the 12-yard line. It was the first double-digit winning season since 2018 and this team looks to be back at the top for the foreseeable future. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but like Georgia, a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses its top rusher and top five receivers but it has an offensive line that rivals that of the Bulldogs. While the defense will not have to carry the offense, it could if needed even with what is considered a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. The Longhorns make up for it with top four units in the SEC at linebacker and secondary. They face an improved Colorado St. team before heading to Michigan in Week 2. The SEC slate is one of the best as of the top seven teams not including them, they miss five and while the one is Georgia, it is at home.

Mississippi Rebels 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

The Rebels have been on the cusp of something really special in each of the last three seasons but have not been able to get over the hump as Alabama has gotten in the way twice in 2021 and 2023 and LSU stopped their 7-0 start in 2022. Head coach Lane Kiffin is brash and cocky to a lot of people but he wins and he has turned this program around with double-digit winning seasons two of the last three years as prior to this, Mississippi produced only three 10-win seasons since 1963. This edition of the Rebels could and should be the best of them all as they come into 2024 as the most experienced team in the SEC and No. 13 in the country thanks to 20 returning starters. Quarterback Jaxson Dart would arguably be the top quarterback in every other Power 4 Conference but the SEC is loaded at that position so he might be flying under the radar with a loaded receiving corps and a top offensive line in front of him. Defense has always been an issue in Oxford but last season the Rebels allowed their fewest points since 2014 and after bringing in a haul through the transfer portal, they should be even better. The nonconference slate is a joke and of the 10 teams with win totals of 7.5 or more, they face only three of those and two are at home while they avoid both Texas and Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide 12-2 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

Alabama suffered an early season loss to Texas but did not slip up the remainder of the season, including a miracle win at Auburn, to make it to the CFP for the eighth time before getting upended by Michigan in overtime, showing how important it is to lose early if you are going to lose. That was the 16th consecutive season with double digit wins but those of course were all under head coach Nick Saban who called it a career as arguably the greatest college coach of all time and now Kalan DeBoer walks into the footsteps of a legend. He will not be intimidated as he has been in the national spotlight and while the pressure will be there to keep winning, he has the talent to do so. The offense revolves around quarterback Jalen Milroe but he loses 1,793 receiving yards from his top three receivers behind a fairly weak offensive line. Alabama has allowed 20 points or less in an incredible 16 straight seasons and that streak should continue despite losing a lot to the NFL. Their strength will be on the backend which is big in a conference loaded with quarterbacks. The schedule is one of the toughest in the country despite a fairly weak nonconference slate that includes a game at Wisconsin. They face six of the other top nine SEC teams while facing four teams coming off a bye week.

LSU Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 11-1-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

Despite winning the National Championship in 2019, head coach Ed Orgeron was let go two years later despite one of those being the unpredictable COVID season but they seem to have made the right hire with Brian Kelly who has put together a 20-7 record in his first two seasons. The problem has been losing to Florida St. in the first game of the season both years and there has been too much room to make up while being unable to defeat some of the elite teams ahead of them including last season when they went 1-3 against top 25 teams. Now comes the real challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Jayden Daniels but they might have the guy in Garrett Nussmeier who threw for 395 yards on 31-45 passing and three touchdowns in the ReliaQuest Bowl win. The issue is losing two top receivers who combined for 2,746 yards and their leading rusher was Daniels with 1,134 yards so there will be a call for playmakers to go with a top offensive line. LSU regressed defensively, finishing No. 103 overall and No. 79 in scoring and this unit needs to improve with a new coordinator in place. LSU faces USC on a neutral field and UCLA at home and within the conference, they avoid Georgia and Texas while catching their three biggest tests all at home.

Missouri Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

Missouri had not had a winning season since 2018 although it finished exactly .500 during the regular season every season between 2019 and 2022 and while more of the same was expected last year, the Tigers were completely underrated and went off for an 11-2 campaign, their first double digit winning season since 2014. Eli Drinkwitz had a warm seat going into last season but that is long gone as he earned a contract extension through 2028 and his team is loaded once again to go along with a schedule that is ranked in the 60s and it is the easiest in the SEC so something special is possible. The offense brings back nine starters but the Tigers lose All American running back Cody Schrader who rushed for a school record 1,654 yards so that will be impossible to replace. Quarterback Brady Cook had a great season but was limited because of Schrader but now he will be asked to unleash it with the best receiving corps in the conference with his top five targets returning. The offensive line is not the best but extremely experienced. Missouri had their best defense since 2019 but lost five top five round picks yet should still be fine. Their first four games are at home, they will go 4-0 in the nonconference and they miss Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and LSU and face only one team off a bye.

Tennessee Volunteers 9-4 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 5

In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. This season will pose some challenges though as Tennessee comes in as the fourth least experienced team in the conference but a fairly easy schedule will at least bring them another winning record. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season. The defense has to replace six starters and the success of their season could rely on their back seven which is the third weakest in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt, in a conference with incredible quarterback talent. The only tough nonconference game is a neutral site contest against NC State and in the SEC, other than Alabama at home and Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, all other games are winnable.

Texas A&M Aggies 7-6 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9

If you look up the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the last three years in the dictionary, the Aggies logo will be prominently displayed. They opened 2021 and 2022 No. 6 in the preseason AP poll only to lose early and often and finish outside the top 25 both seasons as they did again last season. Texas A&M has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country and even with the talent, it underachieved under fired head coach Jimbo Fisher but now they might have found the right fit with former Duke coach Mike Elko who brought out the best of not so talented rosters and he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018-2021. Nine starters are back on offense led by quarterback Connor Weigman who has made four starts each of the last two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and just two picks. He has an experienced trio of receivers and has one of the best running back groups in the conference. The defense also has nine starters back and should be much improved with Elko back in the mix as they will have a superior pass rush which will help out the secondary. Opening at home against Notre Dame and former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will be interesting and in the SEC, they miss Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi while getting Texas, Missouri and LSU at home.

Auburn Tigers 6-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Auburn is coming off its third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze but the 6-7 season in 2023 was better than the record indicates. Three of the losses were against Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama and all by one possession with the latter coming on a late miracle touchdown by the Tide although a 21-point loss at home to New Mexico St. as a 26-point favorite should never happen. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team and have a schedule that is difficult in spots but doable. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent but has three years of starting experience, the other two at Michigan St. The leading receiver last season had 394 yards but incoming freshman Cam Coleman will change that along with a pair of wideouts from the transfer portal. The defense improved by a touchdown from 2022 and should get even better. The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference which offsets a tough SEC slate that includes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, all on the road and Texas A&M and Oklahoma at home.

Oklahoma Sooners 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Oklahoma is the second team coming over from the Big 12 following a 10-3 season that could have been so much better. The Sooners opened 7-0 which included a win over Texas and they moved up to No. 6 in the AP Poll but then came a pair of consecutive road losses at Kansas and Oklahoma St. by a combined eight points. After a 6-7 record in 2022, head coach Brent Venables looks to have Oklahoma back where it belongs but a shift to the SEC and having to play the toughest conference schedule will be a true test. New coordinators on offense and defense could be challenging early on as well. The offense brings back seven starters but it has to replace quarterback Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon so that is a big hit but the replacement is a big time recruit in sophomore Jackson Arnold. Even though they lose their top receiver, the Sooners have the third best group in the SEC. Oklahoma improved its defense by close to a touchdown and should improve more with eight starters back and the third season under Venables. The good news is the Sooners can break in the new parts with a weak nonconference schedule against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The bad news is that they play six of the top seven teams in the SEC and they miss Vanderbilt and Mississippi St.

Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 10

Head coach Mark Stoops was hired in 2013 coming into an awful situation and while it took him a couple years to make it his program, Kentucky has had a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons, the 2020 COVID year being the only exception. He has had two double digit winning seasons which is more impressive considering the Wildcats had only two in the history of the program prior to this, the last coming in 1977. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC but in this conference, sometimes that does not matter. There are eight starters back on offense and like many teams in the SEC, the Wildcats have to replace their quarterback with Devin Leary off to the NFL but there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff. They lose Ray Davis out of the backfield but DeaMonte Trayanum from Ohio St. should fill the void. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be better than last season. All four nonconference games are at home so they have only four road games but three are tough. They do avoid Alabama, LSU and Missouri.

Arkansas Razorbacks 4-8 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

It was an absolute mess that former head coach Chad Morris left for current head coach Sam Pittman who was hired in 2020 and that weird season resulted in a 3-7 record but things turned around with a pair of winning season but then last year hit. The Razorbacks opened 2-0 against inferior teams but that was followed up by a six-game losing streak that included a stretch of four straight non-home games and they could not recover enroute to a 4-8 record. That six-game skid included five losses by one possession and three of those were against Alabama, Mississippi and LSU all away from home and on the season, they were only -1.3 ppg in scoring differential so it was not as bad as that record shows. The offense took a huge step back last season as they regressed by 144 ypg from 2022 despite KJ Jefferson at quarterback. He has departed and Boise St. transfer Taylen Green takes over. Arkansas has its top eight receivers back so the offense can get back to its 2022 numbers. The defense made up for it somewhat, improving by 108 ypg and have their most experienced unit returning since 2021. The Razorbacks have three winnable nonconference home games but travel to Oklahoma St. and while they miss Alabama and Georgia, they have to play seven of the other top nine in the SEC.

Florida Gators 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Florida opened last season 5-2 and cracked the AP Top 25 but the Gators went on to lose their final five games, four coming against ranked teams, to make it three straight losing seasons in Gainesville. The last time they had three straight losing seasons was 1945-1947 so this is a pretty big deal although the previous two seasons was due to a bowl loss prior to the rugged late schedule last year. Head coach Billy Napier is not on the hot seat as this has not been a complete debacle but he does need to turn this around sooner rather than later however we are not sure if this is the year. The offense took a small dip in yards but scoring has remained steady over the last three seasons and they should show some improvement with Graham Mertz now in his second season in this system after completing 73 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. They have the playmakers and overall have the No. 5 ranked preseason offense. The defense did nothing to help out the offense and it too has been flat over the last three seasons but has to improve and it should if key parts come together in the back seven. The Gators play the hardest schedule in the country with Miami, UCF and Florida St. in the nonconference and they play all the big boys in the SEC sans Alabama.

South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The Gamecocks had eight wins in 2022 which was their second straight winning season but they could not carry that over into last year as they had only 10 starters back. South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. This team is close as it needs a few breaks and needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense. South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times while scoring 37 or more points five times with nothing in-between and now a quarterback needs to break away from the pack between transfers Robby Ashford and Davis Beville and redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The top three receivers are gone so it is a young group and they will rely on Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards in 2022. The transfer portal is going to play a big role in improving a defense that has not been good since 2017. Clemson is the only tough nonconference game and in the SEC, the Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas from the top and get Mississippi, LSU and Missouri at home.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

College football lost a legend when Mississippi St. head coach Mike Leach passed away suddenly in December of 2022 after an 8-4 regular season and the Bulldogs beat Illinois 19-10 in the ReliaQuest Bowl in his honor. They hired Zach Arnett, who coached the bowl game, to take over and it lasted a total of 10 games as he was fired after a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. Now on their third coach in less than two years, it will be up to former Oklahoma St. and Mississippi offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to find some stability in this program that Leach was forming and has had only one double digit winning season since the turn of the century. It will not be easy this season being the least experienced team in the conference as Mississippi St. brings back only five starters on each side of the ball. The offense regressed by close to 10 ppg but Lebby will serve as OC with a more high powered attack led by Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. The leading rusher is gone, the top five receivers are gone and the entire offensive line is new. The defense will not be able to carry them as the Bulldogs lost nine of their top 12 tacklers and it is a big rebuild project. There are three possible nonconference home wins and within the conference, they miss Alabama and LSU but play six of the other top eight teams.

Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 ~ 0-8 SEC ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012 and those have been the only two years they finished in the AP Top 25 since 1948. It has been a long road of misery for the administration and the entire fanbase and that is going to continue again this season but they should show improvement after getting outscored by close to two touchdowns per game last season. The offense gets an upgrade with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia taking over at quarterback after two very productive years with the Aggies. Three starters are back on the offensive line along with two transfers with big starting experience but they need to find a running game that averaged only 95 ypg on 3.3 ypc and have to replace their top three receivers. The defense is what has devastated them as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement. They have two winnable nonconference games with a game at Georgia St. being a swing game and they play five of the top seven teams in the SEC.

2024 Pac 2/Independent Preview 8-23-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals (via DraftKings)

Notre Dame: 10 Over -115 Under -105
Washington State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100
Oregon State: 7.5 Over +110 Under -130
Connecticut: 4.5 Over -130 Under +110
Massachusetts: 3.5 Over -125 Under +105

Coaching Changes

Oregon State: Jonathan Smith Out ~ Trent Bray In

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 10-3 ~ 9-3-1 ATS ~ 9-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9

Another year, another year of high expectations for Notre Dame. Double-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons while cracking the AP Top 10 in each of those seven seasons has brought the Fighting Irish nothing more than three top five finishes. Notre Dame has made the CFP twice, in 2018 and 2020, only to get blown out in the Semifinals both times and of late, early and mid-season losses have put a wrench in their plans. A controversial loss to Ohio St. after a 4-0 start was a stinger but then a 13-point loss at Louisville was unexpected and they were cooked again. They come into this season as preseason No. 7 and if they can avoid bad losses, the Fighting Irish will be in the CFP once again with the expansion definitely helping. Because they are not affiliated with a Power 4 conference, they cannot get a bye but that should not matter. They just have to get there first. They have 15 starters back but are just No. 101 in experience and will rely on Duke Transfer Riley Leonard to lead the offense that losses its top back and receiver. The defense was stout last season and will be again with nine starters back and a top five secondary. They only have three true road games including the first and last game against Texas A&M and USC. Everything else should be a win including getting Florida St. at home.

Washington State Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

Washington St. had its seven-season bowl streak come to an end last season, not counting the 2020 COVID year when it played only four games, as it was a nightmare ending. The Cougars opened 4-0 including a pair of top 20 wins and they moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll but then it was six straight losses before a win over an equally reeling Colorado team. Washington St. had a chance to still go bowling but lost to eventual CFP invitee Washington on a last second field goal. Now the Cougars enter 2024 with their future up in the air with the dissolving of the Pac 12 so they are basically playing as an Independent and will have to run the table to have any playoff consideration. We do not see that happening as they have only 10 starters back and are No. 121 in experience. They lose quarterback Cam Ward as he transferred to Miami while also losing their top two receivers. Washington St. had no running game last season as it averaged 85 ypg so it needs balance behind a very experienced offensive line. The defense is in bigger trouble with just four starts back as the Cougars have to replace their entire secondary. They play the No. 100 ranked schedule so there is some hope as they face two former Pac 12 teams, a Big 12 team and eight MWC teams and it looks doable to get back to a bowl.

Oregon State Beavers 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-7-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 1

Oregon St. is the other former Pac 12 team without a home as it will have to regroup from a disappointing 2023 season. Disappointing in that it could have been something really special as the Beavers got to No. 11 midseason and No. 10 late season but they could not close as their first three conference losses were by a combined eight points. After years of misery, head coach Jonathan Smith turned the program around with three straight winning seasons for the first time since 2006-2009 when it had four straight winning campaigns. This is a great momentum builder but the regrouping stems from Smith leaving to take the job at Michigan St. and Oregon St. returning only five starters. The program promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to be the head coach and he will have his work cut out. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was solid last season but transferred to Florida St. and it will likely be Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy taking over. They also lost their top running back and top four receivers. Only one starter is back on defense that made big improvements the last two seasons but it will take a step back. They have three former Pac 12 teams on the slate to go along with seven MWC opponents as well as Purdue so the schedule is easy enough to make up for the departures.

Connecticut Huskies 3-9 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

Head coach Jim Mora was hired in 2022 to try and turn around a program that had not had a winning record since 2011 and he came into a nightmare situation. The Huskies finished 2019 with a 2-10 record as they beat Wagner from the FCS and equally inept Massachusetts, completely shut the program down in 2020 and then went 1-11 in 2021, beating only FCS Yale. Hiring Mora certainly paid off as Connecticut became bowl eligible with a game to spare but they did finish 6-7 because of the bowl loss yet it was something to build upon. Unfortunately, that did not happen as the Huskies opened 1-9 but did win their final two games to restore a hint of confidence. Three losses came to ranked teams and four others were by one possession so it was not as bad as those past seasons. Six starters are back on offense counting quarterback Joe Fagnano who played only two games before being lost for the season. There is experience in the receiver room and the top two running backs return but three offensive linemen have to be replaced. The defense has the chance to be the best in a very long time with eight starters back and a new defensive coordinator from Mississippi St. Seven of the first nine games are at home and many are winnable so we could see another bounce back from Mora.

Massachusetts Minutemen 3-9 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

After bringing football back in 2012 for the first time since 1906, Massachusetts entered the MAC and that marriage last only four years because the school did not want to become a full time member. They have made up after 10 years as the Minutemen are set to rejoin the MAC in 2025 but not after another miserable year as an Independent. It has been one of the worst runs in college football history as Massachusetts has gone 24-112 including six seasons with one or no wins. But there is something to build on as the three wins last season were the most since 2018 and they equaled the win total from the previous four seasons combined. Give credit to head coach Don Brown who turned teams around at the FCS level and was a successful defensive coordinator before being hired here in 2022. Offensively, the Minutemen improved by 10.7 ppg from 2022 and they do bring back quarterback Taisun Phommachanh and should improve again despite only four other starters back. The defense was atrocious, allowing over 37 ppg and there is not enough in place to make a big move up. Three SEC teams and three MAC contenders are on the slate but there are also two FCS teams along with Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Connecticut so their over win total is possible but a bowl game is not.

2024 Mountain West Conference Preview 8-22-24

By Matt Fargo

Regular Season Win Totals and MWC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Boise State: 9 Over -150 Under +120/-110 MWC Winner
Fresno State: 8 Over +110 Under -140/+475 MWC Winner
UNLV: 7.5 Over +125 Under -160/+550 MWC Winner
Colorado State: 6 Over -140 Under +110/+1,200 MWC Winner
Air Force: 6.5 Over -140 Under +110/+1,100 MWC Winner
Wyoming: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+1,400 MWC Winner
San Jose State: 5 Over +120 Under -150/+5,000 MWC Winner
Utah State: 5 Over -125 Under -105/+3,000 MWC Winner
Hawaii: 5 Over -130 Under +100/+5,000 MWC Winner
San Diego State: 5.5 Over +105 Under -135/+2,800 MWC Winner
Nevada: 2.5 Over -120 Under -110/+30,000 MWC Winner
New Mexico: 2 Over -120 Under -110/+35,000 MWC Winner

Coaching Changes

Boise St.: Andy Avalos Out ~ Spencer Danielson In
New Mexico: Danny Gonzalez Out ~ Bronco Mendenhall In
San Diego St.: Brady Hoke Out ~ Sean Lewis In
San Jose St.: Brent Brennen Out ~ Ken Niumatalolo In
Nevada: Ken Wilson Out ~ Jeff Choate In
Wyoming: Craig Bohl Out ~ Jay Sawvell In
Utah St.: Blake Anderson Out ~ Nate Dreiling In
Fresno St.: Jeff Tedford Out ~ Tim Skipper In

Boise St. Broncos 8-6 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 11

Following a 10-4 season in 2022, Boise St. was tabbed the favorite by many to repeat as regular season champions, the first season the MWC was without divisions and the Broncos finished in a tie with San Jose St. and UNLV and ended up rolling the Rebels in the MWC Championship Game before losing to UCLA 35-22 in the LA Bowl. The Broncos ended up 8-6 and went through a head coach firing which was an odd one as they were playing fine with a 5-5 record at the time with four of those losses by 13 combined points and the other against Washington. Boise St. went 3-1 with then interim head coach Spencer Danielson and he is in a great situation. Six starters are back on offense and while Boise St. has to replace Taylen Green, it should be in good hands with USC transfer Malachi Nelson who was a top 2 recruit in 2023. Running back Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 1,347 yards and 14 touchdowns, returns as does most of the offensive line, while their top two wide receivers have to be replaced. The Broncos have 11 starters back on defense and even though they allowed 25.6 ppg last season, that experience is huge. Boise St. is at Oregon and hosts Washington St. and Oregon St. in the nonconference (they do not count in the MWC standings) while avoiding 3 of the other top six in the MWC.

Fresno St. Bulldogs 9-4 ~ 4-4 MWC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

Not counting the 2020 COVID season, Fresno St. has won nine or more games in five of the other six seasons, the only team in the MWC that can make that claim. Last season, the Bulldogs got off to a 5-0 start and got into the AP Top 25 but lost a tough game at Wyoming by five points but won their next three games after that. Fresno St. was unable to keep that going and make a run to the MWC Championship Game as it lost its final three regular season games before blowing out New Mexico St. 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl. Head coach Jeff Tedford returned for a second stint in 2022, replacing Kalen DeBoer who went to Washington and he was responsible for four of those 9+ recent win seasons but he stepped down and Tim Skipper takes over. The Bulldogs have eight starters back on offense including quarterback Mikey Keane who was outstanding as a freshman and they also have their top three running backs returning. The offensive line is loaded and this offense will not miss a beat. The defense lost over half of their starters but are strong in the back seven and bring in No. 1 defensive end recruit Korey Forman from USC. They open at Michigan and close at UCLA which are the only true nonconference tests and in the MWC, they avoid Boise St. but are at UNLV and Air Force.

UNLV Rebels 9-5 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

UNLV was one of the surprises of the conference last season as following a 35-7 loss at Michigan, the Rebels went on a 7-1 run before losing the regular season finale to San Jose St. It was good enough to get them to the MWC Conference Championship Game where they were blown out by Boise St. before losing to Kansas 49-36 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Still, it was a 9-5 season which were the most wins since 1984 where they had won eight games once and seven games twice so it was no surprise head Barry Odom signed a five-year contract extension in April after his first season here. The offense was supposed to explode under Bobby Petrino but he bolted for Texas A&M before coaching a game and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion did a fantastic job, averaging 34.4 ppg. The Rebels lose quarterback Jayden Maiava to USC but Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka can thrive in this system. Their offensive line is stacked and their top two receivers that combined for 2,089 yards are both back. UNLV was not as strong defensively but it as their best unit in seasons and there is talent at all levels and should be better under defensive mind Odom. They are at Kansas and a game at Houston could be tricky to open the season and while they face Boise St. and Fresno St., both are at home.

Colorado St. Rams 5-7 ~ 3-5 MWC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. A trip to Texas opens the season and they host rival Colorado and while they avoid Boise St. and UNLV, they have Air Force and Fresno St. on the road.

Air Force Falcons 9-4 ~ 5-3 MWC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4

Winning in Colorado Springs has become commonplace under head coach Troy Calhoun as Air Force has had only four losing seasons under his direction and last season looked like it could be something special. The Falcons rolled out to an 8-0 start but got blown out at home by 20 points against Army and they were never the same, losing their last four regular season games. They just fell short of their fourth straight non-COVID double-digit season but if everything goes right, they could start a new streak but that is a big if. The issue is inexperience as Air Force is the second least experienced team in the MWC and it brings back only six starters. Two of those are on offense and they happen to be receivers, the least needed position in this offense so it is a rebuild but the Falcons have had to replace five or fewer starters four times in the last six years and have been successful under offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen. They will find a way for a potent rushing attack. The defense will be fine in the secondary where three of their four returning starters reside and there is plenty of junior and senior experience up front. Nonconference games include Army and Navy as usual and a game at Baylor while in the MWC, they miss Boise St. and UNLV and get Fresno St. and Colorado St. at home.

Wyoming Cowboys 9-4 ~ 5-3 MWC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-5-2 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl retired at the end of last season after 10 seasons with the Cowboys where he compiled a 61-60 record and took them to a bowl game in six of the last seven non-COVID seasons. He went out strong with a 9-4 record with those nine victories the most in his tenure and now Jay Sawvel takes over after serving as the defensive coordinator under Bohl for the last four seasons. This is a strong program with a toughness on both sides so the transition should be seamless especially with a schedule that is on their side. Wyoming was below average on offense as they averaged only 327 ypg but it had a decent power rushing attack and they will stick to that style with new offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who arrives from Michigan St. so he knows about the style. Harrison Waylee returns after rushing for 947 yards last season and will be running behind an offensive line with four returning starters. The wild card will be quarterback Even Svoboda who has a big arm and can run. Under Sawvel, the defense was never great but decently consistent, allowing between 21.0 and 23.9 ppg and they have seven starters back. The Cowboys go to Arizona St., Washington St. and host BYU and in the MWC, they get Boise St. and Air Force at home and avoid Fresno St.

San Jose St. Spartans 7-6 ~ 6-2 MWC ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 4

It was a tale of two seasons for San Jose St. last year as it got off to a 1-5 start with the lone win coming against Cal Poly of the FCS but then the Spartans found their footing and closed the regular season 6-0 to finish 6-2 in the conference and a three-way tie for first place. They did not make the MWC Championship Game because of some unknown tiebreaker and while they went on to lose against Coastal Carolina 24-14 in the Hawaii Bowl, it was some unplanned success. They enter this season as the least experienced team in the conference and one of the least experienced teams in the country so it will take some overachieving and new head coach Ken Niumatalolo comes in with a chip on his shoulder. San Jose St. averaged 31.8 ppg last season, its most since 2013, and there will be a regression with only three starters back and they lose an all MWC quarterback and their top four rushers along with four offensive linemen. The defense is not much better off with only four starters back after finishing No. 2 in the conference in defense. The linebacking corps will be the strength and need to be disruptive to make up for a weak secondary. Washington St., Oregon. St. and Stanford make up the nonconference slate and while they face all the top teams in the MWC, three of those are at home.

Utah St. Aggies 6-7 ~ 4-4 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Utah St. ended last season on a 3-1 run, including a pair of double overtime wins, to become bowl eligible where it was ultimately blown out by Georgia St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl but the Aggies had some positive momentum heading into 2024. Then came a late blow in July where the administration fired head coach Blake Anderson for cause after he had not complied with the reporting of sexual misconduct cases. Newly hired defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling will serve as interim head coach and not only does he has to take over the X and O aspects but he has to make sure his team is on board as this firing was not taken well by very many. 15 starters are back and the Aggies are the third most experienced team in the conference so on paper, they can be a sleeper contender as long as their heads are into it. They lost their quarterback but brought in Iowa transfer Spencer Petras who has a ton of experience. He will be throwing to the second best receiving corps and will be behind an experienced line. The defense could struggle as they lost three of their top four tacklers and need to stop the run where they allowed 213 ypg. They host Utah and are at USC and Washington St. while in the MWC, they avoid Fresno St. and Air Force and do have four conference home games.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 5-8 ~ 3-5 MWC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Hawaii has made progress in the first two years under head coach Timmy Chang and the pieces are in place to get to a bowl game. The problem is that Hawaii plays two FCS teams so should they win those, they will need five other wins to get seven wins total to get to a bowl but it is more than possible. The Warriors have momentum coming into this year as they won three of their last four games and Chang took over the play calling late in the season. Whether he continues that is still unknown as he hired a new offensive coordinator in Dan Morrison who happened to coach Chang when he was the quarterback at Hawaii. The Warriors bring back eight starters on an offense that improved slightly from 2022 and has a chance to really explode this season. Quarterback Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards last season with 26 touchdowns but did toss 14 picks. He threw for 320 or more yards in half of his games but needs to be more consistent and he has his top six receivers back. Any resemblance of a running game will help. The defense improved as the season went on last year and still needs to get better with seven starters coming back. UCLA and Sam Houston are the other two nonconference games and in the MWC, they miss Air Force and get Boise St. and UNLV on the island.

San Diego St. Aztecs 4-8 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

San Diego St. has been as consistent as they come as not counting the 2020 COVID season, the Aztecs had 12 consecutive winning seasons, including five double-digit winning campaigns, up until their 4-8 record last year. What made it worse was the fact they started out 2-0 but then the schedule caught up to them as they lost their next four games against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they could not recover. Head coach Brady Hoke retired after last season and Sean Lewis was hired after serving as the offensive coordinator at Colorado last season. He will shift the offense from a running style to a more Air Raid system as the Aztecs have not averaged 200 yards passing since 2019. Six starters are back on offense and San Diego St. has to break in a new quarterback which is not a bad thing with a new system and it will likely be Florida St. transfer A.J. Duffy. While they will be airing it out at a record speed, that sets up the running game and they brought in 1,000-yard rusher Marquez Cooper from Ball St., who also played under Lewis at Kent St. The defense will struggle namely because they will be on the field way too much. The schedule is not horrible as it is ranked No. 80 but there are too many roadblocks away from home to get enough wins but this is a team on the rise.

Nevada Wolf Pack 2-10 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

Nevada football has never been a thing as it has had only one double-digit winning season in the 37-year history of the program and it has reached eight wins only four times since 2006. While the Wolf Pack have never been really good, they have never been really bad either, that is up until the last two seasons where they went 2-10, the worst two-season stretch ever. There is not much talent or depth so it will be another tough season but they should be better. The offense has nowhere to go but up as Nevada averaged 17.3 ppg on 300 ypg and those are the fewest points it has averaged since 2000 when it put up the exact same amount. Quarterback Brendon Lewis was bad and will be pushed by Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy and whoever wins the job will be throwing to a brand new set of receivers as the top six are gone. They bring in former 1,000-yard rusher Patrick Garwo from Boston College and it all will work around a young offensive line. The defense was not the worst ever but it was still bad as the Wolf Pack were No. 125 overall and No. 118 in scoring. They will be better with Choate here but still not very good. Nevada plays 13 games and the nonconference schedule is tough while it has to play the top five teams in the MWC so it is going to be another long season.

New Mexico Lobos 4-8 ~ 2-6 MWC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 6

New Mexico has not had a winning season since 2016 and it will not break that streak this season but the Lobos did make a solid move with their head coach as they hired Bronco Mendenhall who had plenty of success at a similar type school in BYU. It has been so bad in Albuquerque that the four wins from last season were the most than the previous six seasons. New Mexico has been to four bowl games since 2006 and every one of those was at the New Mexico Bowl so their prize has been to not even be able leave home and Mendenhall will fix that eventually, just not now. Only three starters are back on offense which is not good considering they averaged 27.3 ppg, their most since 2016 and they more than doubled their output from 2022. Devon Dampier likely takes over at quarterback who is a duel threat and he gets two receivers and a tight end that are returning starters but that is it on offense. The Lobos lose a 1,229-yard running back and the entire offensive line. The defense was far from good enough to help the offense and with the offense taking a big step back, the defense does not have the talent to improve dramatically. They are at Arizona and at Auburn early and they miss Boise St. and UNLV in the MWC and have seven road games in total. Another rebu

Mid-American Conference Preview 8-21-24

By Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and MAC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Miami (OH): 8 Over +100 Under -120/+250 MAC Winner
Toledo: 8.5 Over +120 Under -140/+280 MAC Winner
Bowling Green: 6.5 Over +110 Under -130/+700 MAC Winner
Northern Illinois: 6.5 Over -120 Under +100/+650 MAC Winner
Ohio: 6.5 Over +130 Under -155/+1,000 MAC Winner
Western Michigan: 6.5 Over -120 Under +100/+650 MAC Winner
Buffalo: 5 Over -125 Under +105/+3,500 MAC Winner
Central Michigan: 5.5 Over -150 Under +125/+1,400 MAC Winner
Ball State: 4 Over -110 Under -110/+3,500 MAC Winner
Eastern Michigan 4.5 Over -135 Under +115/+3,000 MAC Winner
Akron: 3.5 Over +105 Under -125/+6,000 MAC Winner
Kent State: 2.5 Over -150 Under +125/+25,000 MAC Winner

Coaching Changes

Buffalo: Maurice Linguist Out ~ Pete Lembo In

Miami (OH) RedHawks 11-3 ~ 7-1 MAC ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6

Miami was coming off a very average run where it had gone 12 straight seasons having not won more than eight games and taking out the 2-1 COVID season, the RedHawks had just two winning seasons but nearly everything went right in 2023. They went 11-3, the most wins since winning 13 games in 2003, and following a loss at Miami Fl. to open the season, the other two losses were by a combined eight points. Miami is going to be good again but will likely not match what it did last season with some key personnel losses and it will be facing a stronger schedule. The offense was not great last season and the RedHawks lose their top two running backs and leading receiver but they do bring back quarterback Brett Gabbert, who is projected First All MAC as well as four of five offensive linemen so the foundation is there. The defense led the way as Miami ranked No. 27 overall and No. 8 in scoring and it was legit down the stretch, not allowing more than 21 points in its last 11 games. Six starters are back with what is likely still the best defense in the MAC. With the divisions no longer around, Miami takes a hit because it played in the weaker MAC East and this year misses Buffalo and Akron while picking up Northern Illinois and having to face Toledo on the road.

Toledo Rockets 11-3 ~ 8-0 MAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 4

The Rockets continue to be the most consistent team in the MAC as they have gone 14 consecutive seasons without a losing record and have had only one losing record within the conference over that stretch. 2023 was a season of what could have been as Toledo blew a late lead and lost to Illinois in the season opener by two points then won 11 straight games before coming up short against Miami in the MAC Championship Game. It was the first season the Rockets have gone undefeated in MAC play but that will unlikely take place again as they bring back only eight starters, four on each side of the ball. Toledo had a potent offense again, finishing No. 40 overall and No. 31 in scoring but could not solve Miami and now are without quarterback Dequan Finn who transferred out and the Rockets have to replace their entire offensive line with limited experience in those areas. They do get their top four receivers back. Toledo had their best season on defense since 2000 in terms of scoring with 20.3 ppg allowed but they need a lot of help to maintain that potent unit. Toledo has a couple tough but winnable games at Mississippi St. and Western Kentucky and while it faces all four of the other top teams, three of those are at home with only Northern Illinois on the road.

Bowling Green Falcons 7-6 ~ 5-3 MAC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

After seven straight losing seasons, Bowling Green finally put together a winning campaign as it finished 7-6 but concluded the season with a loss in the Quick Lane Bowl for a second straight season. The Falcons 5-3 MAC record included all five wins against losing teams and all three losses against winning teams and with a tougher schedule in 2024, they are going to have to find a way to beat the top teams which they are very capable of doing. Both sides of the ball showed notable improvement in 2023 as the offense averaged more than 25 ppg for the first time since 2015 and allowed fewer than 25 ppg for the first time since 2013 so the record was not really indicative of what was accomplished. Bowling Green is the third most experienced team in the conference and have 15 returning starters in some key areas. The Falcons are led by quarterback Conner Bazelak who was far from great but should be better this season and the offensive line has four of five starters back. Defensively, the Falcons improved by 8.5 ppg and close to 100 ypg from 2023 and have seven starters back so that unit too could be even better. They have brutal road games at Penn St. and Texas A&M while in the MAC, the only true road test is at Toledo as they get Northern Illinois and Miami at home.

Northern Illinois Huskies 7-6 ~ 5-3 MAC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

Since winning 11 or 12 games for five straight years between 2010-2014, it has been an inconsistent run the last nine seasons with five winning records and four losing campaigns. The Huskies were in danger of a losing season last year with a 1-4 start but the schedule eased up in the second half and they won their final two games to become bowl eligible. Not that it is huge going forward but Northern Illinois snapped its seven-game bowl losing streak with its 21-19 win over Arkansas St. in the Camellia Bowl. This will be the fourth straight season Northern Illinois will have at least 15 starters back and it is capable of its best one over this stretch. A lot of that will have to do with finding a quarterback as there is a three-way battle with not much experience in this system. To ease that transition, the Huskies are going to rely on running Antario Brown who rushed for 1,339 yards and is running behind the No. 1 ranked offensive line in the MAC. Northern Illinois improved its defense by 11.8 ppg and 76 ypg from 2023 and it finished No. 23 overall and has a chance to be better with eight starters back along with solid depth. The Huskies have two rough games at Notre Dame and N.C. State while the MAC schedule is tough with only one home game against the top six (Toledo) but they avoid Ohio.

Ohio Bobcats 10-3 ~ 6-2 MAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 3-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 4

The biggest top team in transition in the MAC will be Ohio. The Bobcats are coming off consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in program history as head coach Tim Albin has kept this program strong despite a 3-9 season in his first one in 2021 but now comes a real challenge. Ohio is the most inexperienced team in the MAC while bringing back only six starters so there is not much to work with but the schedule is on their side. The offense faced adversity last season with some key injuries but they were able to get through it with their worst offensive season with 347.7 ypg since 2010. They lose one time First Team quarterback Kurtis Rourke who transferred to Indiana along with eight other starters on offense and in total, gone are the top three rushers accounting for 1,637 yards and their top seven receivers accounting for 2,386 yards. It was the defense that carried Ohio, finishing No. 3 overall and No. 5 in scoring, its best season since at least 1997 when our database goes back. Unfortunately, only four starters are back along with a new defensive coordinator. Ohio has Syracuse and Kentucky in the nonconference and in the MAC it has one of the easier schedules as the Bobcats avoid Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Western Michigan but have both Toledo and Miami on the road.

Western Michigan Broncos 4-8 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

It was a rough season for Western Michigan but not much was expected as the Broncos were breaking in a new head coach, had only 10 returning starters and were the second least experienced team in the MAC. Following a win over St. Francis, five of the next seven games were on the road, three at Power Five teams, as well as playing Toledo, Miami and Ohio so there was no chance. Western Michigan now goes from one of the least experienced teams in the country to one of the most experienced and it is now playing an easier schedule. The Broncos have nine starters back on offense including all of the skill positions and will be led by quarterback Hayden Wolff who had average numbers but he took over the starting job after five games and the offense improved dramatically. The concern is replacing two offensive linemen. Defensively, they had only two starters back last season and now eight return that will look to improve its 31.8 ppg allowed. One of the losses was huge with defensive end Marshawn Kneeland being taken in the second round by the Cowboys. They open the season with a pair of losses at Wisconsin and Ohio St. but then there are numerous winnable games going forward and they avoid Miami, Toledo and Ohio so a bowl should be in their future.

Buffalo Bulls 3-9 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 7

Buffalo found some late success in the final three years with head coach Lance Leipold with a 24-10 record from 2018-2020 but he moved on to Kansas and Maurice Linguist came into a tough situation with a practically a bare cupboard. He left after last season to become an assistant at Alabama and the Bulls hired Pete Lembo who was a former head coach at Ball St. and spent the last three years at South Carolina as an assistant head coach and special teams coach but he too comes into a tough situation. This is the fourth straight season that Buffalo will return only 10 starters so there has not been much to work with. The offense averaged 20.9 ppg last season, it lowest since 2016 and now they are starting from scratch as they have to replace the quarterback, top two rushers and top five receivers. Buffalo does have three offensive linemen returning to build around but this unit is going to struggle to consistently move the ball. The Bulls are better off on defense with seven starters returning with the back end being the strength but there will not be enough big improvement to carry the offense. The only saving grace is facing the fifth easiest schedule in the nation with Missouri being the lone nonconference test. The MAC slate is top heavy which could lead to early confidence loss.

Central Michigan Chippewas 5-7 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

The Chippewas are coming off their second straight losing season under veteran head coach Jim McElwain after going 20-13 in his first three seasons following successful stints at Colorado St. and Florida. They have underachieved with seven losses the last two years coming against teams with losing records so those winnable games have to be taken although there may not be many of those opportunities this season. Central Michigan has regressed on both offense and defense each of the last three seasons, going from +6.5 ppg to -3.4 ppg and -7.9 ppg in scoring differential. Quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. will be the key to the offense as their starter transferred but he does have experience from last season and the Chippewas have their top two rushers and top five receivers back. Defensively, there are a lot of gaps to fill, mostly with the pass rush and in the secondary but they will be bigger up front and the linebackers will be the strength to keep the unit together until the rest of the team can gel and try and find some form of chemistry. They have the hardest schedule in the MAC as they face Toledo, Miami, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Ohio and overall, they face four teams coming off their bye week so this slate will be the biggest challenge getting to a bowl game.

Ball St. Cardinals 4-8 ~ 3-5 MAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 1

Ball St. has not been relevant for a long time as with the exception of their 7-1 COVID season where it actually finished No. 23 in the AP Poll, it has not had a winning season since 2013 and the Cardinals are now 37-56 under head coach Mike Neu. It might take something special to save his job but it could be another challenging season as the Cardinals early season schedule could determine the beginning of the end. Ball St. has gone the wrong way on offense in each of the last five seasons and it bottomed out last year as it averaged just 18.3 ppg on 308 ypg but there could be major improvements in 2024. Quarterback Kadin Semonza played in four games last season before the coaching staff decided to redshirt him so he has experience. Their leading receiver is back but more importantly, Ty Robinson is back after missing the season after two games. Three projected All MAC offensive linemen are back. The defense was stout and carried the team but now only one starter is back, linebacker Keionte Newson who led the team with 81 tackles. New coordinator Jeff Knowles led Butler to one of the best defenses in the FCS. Five of the first seven games are on the road with Kent St. being the only likely win and while three of the last five are at home, they are against the top five teams in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan Eagles 6-7 ~ 4-4 MAC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

While there has not been any huge success for Eastern Michigan under head coach Chris Creighton, he has made the Eagles one of the most consistent teams in the MAC. Eastern Michigan was a mess for years with losing records in 17 of 18 seasons before he took over in 2014 and while it took him two years to find his team, he has had only three losing seasons the last eight, two of those were due to bowl losses. Getting to a bowl for a fourth straight season could be a challenge though. The offense was bad last season as the Eagles averaged only 19.5 ppg and this is the area where they will struggle at least early on as all three quarterbacks, their top four rushers and three of their top four receivers are gone. They get transfer quarterback Cole Snyder from Buffalo where he started two years. The defense has not been great for a few years and last year was no exception. Eastern Michigan has six starters back with holes at all three levels and will sorely miss Chase Kline and Joe Sparacio who combined for a whopping 279 tackles. The Eagles have the second easiest schedule in the MAC and should go 3-1 in nonconference play with the loss being at Washington and the conference slate is not bad as they get Miami and Toledo at home and do miss Bowling Green and Northern Illinois.

Akron Zips 2-10 ~ 1-7 MAC ~ 4-6-2 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 3/Defense 6

Akron went to the MAC Championship game back in 2017 where it lost to Toledo by 17 points and then lost to Florida Atlantic 50-3 in the Boca Raton Bowl and it has been all downhill since then. The Zips have not had a winning season since then and have not had more than two wins in five straight seasons, accumulating a 7-47 record over that stretch. Making it worse, three of those victories were against FCS teams. Akron returns the fourth least experienced team and has only nine starters back and finding more than three wins on the schedule is a challenge. Akron has to rebuild an offense that averaged just 16.3 ppg on 279 ypg as it losses both top quarterbacks, top two rushers and top three receivers. But the Zips do get NC State and Cal transfer quarterback Ben Finley however only one starter along the offensive line is back. The defense will try and carry the team as the unit has improved each of the last four seasons but still gave up 28 ppg last year. The front seven is the strength as that is where all six starters return so the bad news is that the entire secondary has to be replaced. The nonconference schedule includes a home game against Colgate but also consists of games at Ohio St., Rutgers and South Carolina. Of the top five teams in the MAC, the Zips only avoid Miami.

Kent St. Golden Flashes 1-11 ~ 0-8 MAC ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 4

Kent St. has had some bad seasons in program history and last year ranked right up there. The Golden Flashes went 1-11 with the only win coming against Central Connecticut St. of the FCS, 10 of their losses were by double digits and they were outscored by nearly 20 ppg. This was expected as head coach Sean Lewis left to be the offensive coordinator at Colorado and the roster dissipated quickly and they did not have a single starter back on offense and only four returned on defense. Things are expected to be better under second year head coach Kenni Burns but how much better is the question. There are nine starters back on offense so Burns kept a significant amount of the core and while that offense was bad, it will be in its second year in the system. Quarterback Tommy Ulatowski made three starts and needs to be more efficient while his two leading receivers are back and a Michigan St. transfer will be in the mix. The entire offensive line is back. The defense is not as experienced with four starters back for a second straight season. All three levels need some major improvement to keep the pressure off the offense if there is any success on that side. Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Penn St. dot the nonconference slate and there are a couple winnable MAC games but not enough.

2024 Conference USA Conference Preview 8-20-24
By Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and C-USA Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Liberty: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/-200 C-USA Winner
Jacksonville State: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115/+550 C-USA Winner
Western Kentucky: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+450 C-USA Winner
FIU: 4.5 Over +125 Under -150/+10,000 C-USA Winner
Louisiana Tech: 5 Over +105 Under -125/+2,500 C-USA Winner
Middle Tennessee: 5 Over -115 Under -105/+3,000 C-USA Winner
New Mexico State: 4.5 Over +125 Under -150/+7,500 C-USA Winner
Sam Houston: 4.5 Over -125 Under +105/+1,800 C-USA Winner
UTEP: 4 Over -125 Under +105/+6,000 C-USA Winner
Kennesaw State: 2.5 Over +100 Under -120/+30,000 C-USA Winner

Coaching Changes

Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill Out ~ Derek Mason In
New Mexico State: Jerry Kill Out ~ Tony Sanchez In
UTEP: Dana Dimel Out ~ Scotty Walden In

Liberty Flames 13-1 ~ 8-0 C-USA ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

Liberty entered the FBS in 2018 and it has yet to endure a losing season, putting together a 53-23 record following a 13-1 mark last season. The Flames blew through the regular season undefeated and then defeated New Mexico St. in the C-USA Championship Game before losing to Oregon 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl. Only two of the victories were by single digits so they dominated throughout and are the clear cut favorites to repeat this season and try and get a shot in the CFP although based on the bowl game last year, they may not be able to compete with the big boys. Second year head coach Jamey Chadwell is a hot commodity after leading Coastal Carolina to a 31-7 record prior to taking over at Liberty so another big season and he will be gone. Returning is quarterback Kaidon Salter who broke the school record with 44 touchdowns but he does lose four of his top five receivers. However, The Flames were the No. 1 rushing team and will rely on that again. Defensively, they were just average but that is all they needed and they should be better with eight starters back. Liberty played a very easy schedule last season and it is easy again in 2024, listed as the weakest slate in the country. The only nonconference test is at Appalachian St. and the two toughest C-USA games are at home.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 9-4 ~ 6-2 C-USA ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 4

The Gamecocks entered their first season at the FBS level in 2023 and it was a surprisingly resounding success as they finished 9-4 which included a win over Louisiana 33-30 in overtime in the New Orleans Bowl, becoming the first team ever to win a bowl game in its first season moving up to D-1. It could be a challenge getting to nine wins again with the way the schedule is set up but an overall very weak conference will lend a hand in the success. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has had success throughout his career with only four losing campaigns in his 17 FBS seasons so the success last year should not be all that much of a surprise. Jacksonville St. had 15 starters back last season but it only has nine coming back this season and loses a lot in key areas. The offense was adequate last season but the Gamecocks have to replace their quarterback, three top running backs and two top receivers. There will be a quarterback battle between Logan Smothers, who saw decent action last season, and Connecticut transfer Zion Turner. The defense led the way with a strong pass rush and third down defense but the majority has to be replaced. They have two tough nonconference games against Coastal Carolina and at Louisville and they have to travel to both Liberty and Western Kentucky.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8-5 ~ 5-3 C-USA ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

It was a third straight winning season for the Hilltoppers despite bringing back only 10 starters and the 8-5 record could have been better as two of the losses were by three points on the road. Western Kentucky has had winning seasons in 10 out of the last 13 following a 4-32 stretch from 2008-2010 which were three of its first four years at the FBS level. The Hilltoppers return their most starters since 2020 and the offense should be better with nine starters back following an inconsistent season where they were No. 53 overall and No. 48 in scoring. Western Kentucky does lose quarterback Austin Reed and top receiver Malachi Corley but three receivers with starting experience that combined for 1,244 yards are back and it got T.J. Finley from the transfer portal who threw for 3,439 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions at Texas St. after stops at LSU and Auburn. The running game will have to improve to take some pressure off after finishing No. 119 last season. The Hilltoppers return only five players on defense from a unit that was No. 110 overall and No. 94 in points allowed. They get Eastern Kentucky but the other three nonconference games are Alabama, Toledo and Boston College. They do not face Liberty or Jacksonville St. until the final two weeks which could be a big edge if healthy.

FIU Panthers 4-8 ~ 1-7 C-USA ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

It was another disappointing season for the Panthers which suffered their fifth straight losing season as they were two wins away from bowl eligibility with four games left but lost all four of those, getting outscored 166-70 to finish 4-8. Florida International head coach Mike Macintyre is in his third season and while he is a well-known name mainly because of his time in Colorado from 2013-2018 but he has not had a ton of success with a career record of 54-81 in 11 seasons. While it is not a complete rebuild, the Panthers have 14 starters coming back and they are No. 3 in experience in C-USA, but the talent is not where it should be coming from where they come from. They were bad on both sides in 2023 with the passing offense ranking of No. 59 being the only unit to finish inside the top 100. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins is very talented but he needs to be more efficient and accurate as he had an 11:11 TD:INT ration while completing just over 58 percent of his passes. The running game needs to improve behind a weak offensive line. The defense allowed 34 or more points seven times including 40 of more four times. The schedule is tame with tough trips to Indiana and Florida Atlantic and while most of C-USA is just as bad as the Panthers, the have to go to both Liberty and Jacksonville St.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

A winning record and a bowl invite were pretty much guarantees for Louisiana Tech not so long ago as from 2011-2020, the Bulldogs had only one losing season that included eight bowl games (they turned down an invitation in 2012) but they have gone 3-9 in each of the last three seasons. Head coach Sonny Cumbie is in his third season after taking over for Skip Holtz and his job could be on the line should he put together another similar season in Ruston. He had success as offensive coordinator at TCU and Texas Tech and brought in the Air Raid offense which has had success, just not consistently. The Bulldogs were still average at No. 67 in total offense and No. 76 in scoring offense and now have to replace their quarterback, three top receivers and leading running back as well as both offensive tackles. There is not much experience at quarterback and there will likely be a short leash. While there was a lack on consistency on offense, the defense was bad most of the time as Louisiana Tech was No. 109 overall and No. 117 in scoring and they really stumbled down the stretch. This unit also has to replace six starters which may not be a bad thing. The Bulldogs have two tough nonconference games at NC State and Arkansas but in C-USA, they catch a break and miss Liberty entirely which is like a win.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-8 ~ 3-5 C-USA ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3

Former Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill took this program to a bowl game ten times in his 18 seasons but it was not good enough as he was fired after a 4-8 finish last season. He had a losing record only seven times but he won more than eight games only once when the Blue Raiders went 10-3 in 2009 so now it will be up to former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason to try and advance the program. He was just 27-55 in seven seasons with the Commodores but coaching in the SEC on a perennial poor team and coaching in C-USA are two different things. The bad news is that it looks to be a rebuilding season as they have only seven starters back overall. Offensively, at least they get their quarterback, leading receiver and leading rusher back but they have to replace four starters along the offensive line although there is some experience. Middle Tennessee was No. 62 in total offense last season so that could be hard to replicate if the line does not progress. The Blue Raiders were not as good on defense and this is another situation where a lack of returnees from a bad unit may not be a horrible thing. They have a tough nonconference slate with games against Mississippi, Memphis and Duke and within the conference, they get Liberty and Western Kentucky at home.

New Mexico State Aggies 9-4 ~ 6-2 C-USA ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 3

New Mexico St. was the surprise of the conference last season as it opened with a bad loss at home against Massachusetts but then went on a 10-2 run which included a win at Auburn and made it to the C-USA Championship Game but lost to Liberty 49-35 before losing to Fresno St. 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl. That was only the third bowl game for the Aggies since 1960 but it was the second in two years and now, they have to do it without head coach Jerry Kill who proved what a good coach he is by winning 17 games in his two years after the program won a combined 26 games in the previous 10 seasons. Tony Sanchez takes over after going 20-40 at UNLV from 2015-2019 in his only other head coaching experience and he is walking into a tough situation with New Mexico St. bringing back only eight starters. The biggest loss is at quarterback with Diego Pavia coming off a great season and there is little to no experience at the position. The Aggies also lost their top six receivers that accumulated 2,275 yards. Defensively is where they really overachieved as they had only four starters back and that drops to three for this season after finishing No. 46 in scoring defense. They have games at Texas A&M and a rematch at Fresno St. and the C-USA schedule is fairly frontloaded which is not ideal.

Sam Houston Bearkats 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 4

San Houston St. was the other of the two teams entering C-USA and the Bearkats did not have the same success that Jacksonville St. had. They started very slow as the offense could not get going, managing more than 16 points only once in their first six games while starting 0-8. Sam Houston did win three of its last four games to produce some momentum heading into this season which is expected to be better. Head coach K.C. Keeler has a proven track record here and he will have this team ready but the Bearkats might still be a year away although anything can happen in this conference. Sam Houston ended up No. 119 in total offense and No. 118 in scoring offense and had a much better second half where is averaged 28.9 ppg over the final six games. A new quarterback will be taking over and it will be either Hunter Watson, a JUCO transfer who won a National Championship, or Jase Bauer, a transfer from Central Michigan. Overall, eight other starters are back including four along the offensive line. The defense kept some of the losses close but now they have to replace seven starters, each line needing multiple replacements. The nonconference schedule is sneaky hard with Rice, UCF and Texas St. and the only team they miss in the conference is Middle Tennessee.

UTEP Miners 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 5

It has been an up and down stretch for UTEP which had a 2-34 stretch in 2017-2019 and was slowly starting to improve but bottomed back out at 3-9 last year and head coach Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons. UTEP hired Scotty Walden from Austin Peay where he went 26-14 in four seasons and he brought over a lot of his coaching staff and also lured a bunch of his players to join him which could give this team some cohesion early in the season considering the Miners only have nine of their own starters coming back. UTEP could not score last season as it averaged just under 20 ppg which was No. 119 in the country as they scored 14 or fewer points in six of their 12 games. Walden knows offense, his Austin Peay team was No. 14 in total offense in the FCS last season and this will be an improved unit despite the top four receivers moving on as the portal is helping out. The entire offensive line has to be replaced but two starters from Austin Peay will begin the process. Defensively, the Miners were very solid and they do have to replace some key players but the secondary will be the strength once again. Nebraska, Colorado St. and Tennessee make up 3/4 of the nonconference slate and while they only take on two of the top three teams in C-USA, both of those are on the road.

Kennesaw State Owls 3-6 ~ 0-0 Ind ~ 2-4-0 ATS ~ 0-0-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

Kennesaw St. is the newcomer to the conference in 2024 after having some success at the FCS level, albeit not in the last couple years. Last season was a throwaway one for the Owls as they played only nine games and redshirted numerous players after four games to give them that extra year which will eventually put them in a good place, just likely not this season. This program has only been around for nine years so the fact that seven of those resulted in winning seasons shows the coaching staff can take credit for that led by Brian Bohannon who has been here from the very start. Because of the redshirts, there is a lot of experience as the Owls are the fourth most experienced team in the conference but taking a step up is no easy task. Offensively, they run a pistol offense which can benefit them with the competition not having much experience going against that but there is not much experience at quarterback which can hurt early on. There is plenty of depth at running back and receiver to help make up for that. The defense can help carry them for a while with nine starters back on a unit that allowed just 17.9 ppg but again, they move up. The nonconference schedule is not horrible but the schedule makers did them no favors as four C-USA games are against teams coming off a bye.

2024 Big 12 Conference Preview

By Matt Fargo 8-19-24

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 12 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Kansas State: 9.5 Over +125 Under -150/+380 Big 12 Winner
Utah: 9.5 Over -145 Under +125/+320 Big 12 Winner
Kansas: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+950 Big 12 Winner
Arizona: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+1,100 Big 12 Winner
Iowa State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+950 Big 12 Winner
Oklahoma State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 Big 12 Winner
TCU: 7.5 Over +125 Under -150/+1,800 Big 12 Winner
Texas Tech: 7.5 Over -105 Under -115/+1,400 Big 12 Winner
UCF: 7.5 Over -125 Under +105/+900 Big 12 Winner
West Virginia: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110/+1,800 Big 12 Winner
Baylor: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+6,000 Big 12 Winner
Cincinnati: 5 Over -160 Under +135/+8,000 Big 12 Winner
Colorado: 5.5 Over -135 Under +115/+2,800 Big 12 Winner
Arizona State: 4.5 Over +140 Under -170/+10,000 Big 12 Winner
BYU: 4.5 Over +105 Under -125/+12,000 Big 12 Winner
Houston: 3.5 Over -160 Under +135/+11,000 Big 12 Winner

Coaching Changes

Arizona: Jedd Fisch Out ~ Brent Brennen In
Houston: Dana Holgorsen Out ~ Willie Fritz In

Kansas State Wildcats 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8

Kansas St. is coming off another solid season as it went 9-4 and it could have been even better. All four losses were by one possession including two by three points, one against Texas in overtime. We say another solid season because the Wildcats have won eight or more games 10 times over the past 13 seasons and that includes a four-win COVID season. Kansas St. is loaded again on both sides of the ball and has a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game. Avery Johnson takes over at quarterback for Will Howard, who left for Ohio St., and he is one of the most significant recruits the Wildcats have landed in a long time. He has the three top receivers back in Jadon Jackson, Jayce Brown and Keagan Johnson and one of the top running back in the conference in DJ Giddens who rushed for 1,226 yards last season. Defensively, Kansas St. was right on par with the numbers from 2022 and 2023 and this season they should improve as they have six players that could legitimately be on the All-Big 12 teams. Nothing will be easy in this conference but the Wildcats schedule is not bad. They actually play 10 conference teams but Arizona will not count. They only face one team coming off a bye, Colorado, and they are coming off a bye as well to make it a wash.

Utah Utes 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9

Injuries took their toll on the Utes last season right from the start and while the 8-5 season was not what they envisioned, it was still something to be proud of and they gained experience from it. Utah is once again picked to finish at or near the top of the conference but this time it is the Big 12 yet they will still be squaring off against some familiar faces and barring any repeat injuries, anything short of the Big 12 Championship Game will be a disappointment. Neither quarterback Cam Rising nor his leading target tight end Brant Kuithe saw the field last season and the offense suffered as they dropped 15.4 ppg and nearly 120 ypg from their 2023 averages but both are back to full health. Utah brought in USC/Arizona transfer Dorian Singer (1,683 yards in 27 games) and while the offensive line lost three starters, they are always deep and experienced. Utah did not miss a beat on defense which has been the case every year for a while as it finished No. 14 overall and No. 20 in points allowed. The Utes bring back nine starters, needing to replace just one linebacker and one corner so an even better defense could surface this season. The Utes do not leave the state for any of its nonconference games with the only road game at Utah St. and in the Big 12, they miss Kansas and Kansas St.

Kansas Jayhawks 9-4 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

The Jayhawks have taken one of the biggest steps in all of college football over the last couple seasons as they have come close to knocking on the door since head coach Lance Leipold took over the program in 2021 and made it his own. Kansas has won eight Big 12 Conference games the last two seasons after winning eight conference games in the previous 13 seasons combined. It will be an interesting year for the Jayhawks as they have a lot of obstacles to get around but if they can stay healthy, they have the potential to play with anyone in this conference. Quarterback Jalon Daniels was on pace for a monster season and was a sneaky Heisman Trophy candidate but he ended up hurting his back after three games and never came back, electing to take a redshirt. Jason Bean was a solid backup but the offense was not as dynamic as it was with Daniels. Six players had at least 172 yards receiving last season and five of those are back that totaled 1,938 yards while leading rusher Devin Neal is back after running for 1,209 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Big 12 schedule is fairly tame as they miss four of the other top seven teams but they will be playing all of their home games off campus because of renovations taking place at Memorial Stadium which is a big disadvantage.

Arizona Wildcats 10-3 ~ 7-2 Pac 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Arizona was the big surprise in the Pac 12 Conference last season as many publications and polls had the Wildcats finishing near the bottom of the league but after a 3-3 start with two of those losses in overtime, they won their final seven games to close the season. While Arizona would have contended in its old conference, it will be able to contend in its new conference as well. Last season was its first 10-win campaign in a decade and just its second since 1998 so this once proud and dominant program has been stuck in mediocrity for some time. Head coach Jedd Fisch bolted for Washington but left the team in great shape for Brent Brennen who comes over from San Jose St. The offense finished No. 18 overall and No. 20 in scoring behind quarterback Noah Fifita so the offense is again in great hands. Leading receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who had 1,402 yards is back but the next three wideouts are gone so replacements are needed. Two transfer running backs from the MWC who averaged over a combined 2,000 yards take over for Jonah Coleman. The defense was a top 40 unit and is loaded outside from the line which could use help. The Wildcats have five Big 12 home games and while they have Utah on the road, the other three are manageable so they will be in the mix.

Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

After a rough start where the Cyclones opened 2-3, they closed the season 5-2 before losing in the Liberty Bowl 36-26 to Memphis so all-in-all, it was a quality year as they shook off their 4-8 season in 2022. Head coach Matt Campbell has put together six winning seasons in his eight years in Ames and this season has the potential to be the best one yet should it stay healthy because of the back loaded slate. The Cyclones have 19 starters back and are the third most experienced team in the country, trailing only Oklahoma St. and Virginia Tech. After going 21-5 at home from 2018-2021, they went just 6-7 the last two seasons so getting that home mojo back is essential. The only starter lost on offense is at tight end but they are deep at that position. Quarterback Rocco Becht was excellent as a freshman and should only get better. Not only does Iowa St. bring back nine starters on defense, they are all either juniors or seniors so the experience is even greater with the veteran presence. The Cyclones were second in the conference in defense, trailing CFP participant Texas. Do not be surprised with a 6-0 start with a game at Iowa being the real difficult test but then it really toughens up with five bowl teams from last season, plus an improved Cincinnati team and it closes with Utah and Kansas St.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 10-4 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

With nine teams stamped with 7.5 or higher win totals, this is a top heavy Big 12 Conference that can turn into a wide open battle and the Cowboys will certainly be a player with loads of talent and experience. Their 10 wins were the seventh time in the last 13 seasons with double-digit victories so this is a program that has been consistently above average under head coach Mike Gundy, who has only one losing season, his first one in Stillwater, in his 19 years here. Oklahoma St. is the most experienced team in the country after coming in as one of the most inexperienced last season. This offense is loaded with 10 starters back behind quarterback Alan Bowman and he cannot feel more comfortable. He has All-American and the 2023 leading rusher in the country Ollie Gorgon II behind him, five seniors on the offense line that is second in the country in combined starts with 214 and a pair of receivers that combined for 164 catches and 1,886 yards. Oklahoma St. was not good on defense as it as No. 124 overall and No. 92 in points allowed with six returning starters, right in line with 2022 when it had four starters back but now nine are back. They open the Big 12 with games against Utah and Kansas St. so we will see early on what they are made of and they avoid Kansas and Arizona.

TCU Horned Frogs 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

After making the College Football Playoff in 2022, it was an expected down season in 2023 as the Horned Frogs had only 10 starters back, including just three on offense, and a 1-5 midseason run did them in. It was only the sixth losing season since 1997 as head coach Gary Patterson created a dynasty with 11 double-digit win seasons and six final Top 10 rankings. He left in 2021 after four mediocre campaigns and Sonny Dykes was one win away from a National Championship in his first season. TCU should be better off with a much more experienced team and after nearly the same averages on defense in 2023 with seven starters back as it had in 2022, the Horned Frogs bring back nine starters this season. Additionally, they hired former Boise St. head coach Andy Avalos to serve as defensive coordinator. Quarterback John Hoover was pretty solid as a freshman but there is a lot of room for improvement and losing three starters along the offensive line will not help. 1,272-yard rusher Emani Bailey is gone so someone has to step up but Hoover gets his two top receivers back. The conference schedule is a brutal one as they do avoid Kansas St. but have games at Kansas and Utah to go along with home games against Texas Tech, Arizona, and Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-6 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

It was a third straight winning season for Texas Tech, including its third straight bowl win but as has been the case for the last 14 years, it was nothing special. The Red Raiders defeated only one team with a winning record, Kansas, and they have not surpassed eight victories over that 14-year stretch. To their credit, or to at least give them a little justification, they did play nine teams that went to bowl games and five of their six losses were against teams that finished with nine or more wins but to become a team to compete for championships, some of those losses need to become wins. It all starts with the offense that finished No. 65 overall last season with 387.1 ypg, the first time since 2000 that it tallied fewer than 400 ypg. Quarterback Behren Morton was hurt on and off and is fully healthy but there will be a mostly new receiving corps in place so it may take time. They will again depend on Tahj Brooks who rushed for 1,538 yards behind a strong offensive line. The defense was not great but limited opponents to under 400 yards, the first time since 2012 that has happened. They avoid Utah and Kansas St. but the three toughest conference games against Arizona, Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. are all on the road so taking the first five winnable games is important.

UCF Knights 6-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The first season in the Big 12 did not go well for UCF as it went 3-0 in its nonconference games but opened conference action with five straight losses. The Knights did rally to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible but lost to Georgia Tech 30-17 in the Gasparilla Bowl. It easily could have been a better season as they were on the plus side in yardage differential in Big 12 games despite being 3-6 as three of the losses were by a combined four points. The offense was one of the best in the country as UCF finished No. 3 with 527.7 ypg and this was with quarterbacks John Rhys Plumlee and Timmy McClain splitting time because of injuries. Taking over will be KJ Jefferson who comes in from Arkansas after starting 38 games for the Razorbacks and his duel threat ability will fit well. They lose their top receiver but two starters are back and UCF will rely on running back RJ Harvey who rushed for 1,476 yards but the offensive line brings back only 58 starts, second fewest in the conference. Defensively, the Knights could not stop the run as they were fifth worst in the country has to improve in front of an elite secondary. The Knights miss Kansas, Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. and get Utah and Arizona at home so the Big 12 schedule is on their side, they just have to execute.

West Virginia Mountaineers 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

West Virginia was picked to finish bottom three or four in the Big 12 Conference last season with head coach Neal Brown firmly on the hot seat. But the Mountaineers did not listen to the naysayers as they put together their first nine-win season since 2016 when they won 10 games and they look to build upon that. They got blown out in the opener against Penn St. before reeling off four straight wins prior to a brutal last second loss to Houston and they closed the season with five wins in their last six games, the only loss coming against Oklahoma. The job is safe for Brown barring a complete implosion and that should not happen with this offense which finished No. 27 overall with 434.6 ypg, the most since 2017. Most of the pieces are back, led by quarterback Garrett Greene, while the top three running backs and four of the top five receivers return. Defensively, the numbers were not great but West Virginia led the Big 12 in sacks and the secondary was another strength. Their leading tackler is gone and the secondary needs to replace three of four starters but the Mountaineers used the transfer portal to reload and should be just fine. They open with Penn St. again but this time at home while the conference schedule is a bear as they play all of the top teams expect for Utah.

Baylor Bears 3-9 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

The Bears have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country over the last few years and it has been extreme. They went from three straight 10-win seasons from 2013-2015 to one win in 2017. Baylor then went back up to 11 wins in 2019 and 12 wins in 2021 only to have a losing season in 2022 and then fell back further to only three wins last season. Since 2009, Baylor has had four or fewer wins four times and the previous three follow up years, it came back with a winning season so 2024 is ready for another bounce back season and it looks possible. Baylor is the fourth most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference and the highest ranking of all teams that did not make a bowl games last season. Baylor struggled on offense last season, finishing No. 72 but the only replacement needs to be made at tight end so it should improve considerably. Six of nine losses last year were by double digits as the defense imploded when the offense was average but nine starters are back so there should be improvement on this side of the ball as well. Baylor misses Arizona and Kansas St. and the game against Utah counts as a nonconference game and while the rest of the Big 12 slate is no cakewalk, the Bears do get Oklahoma St. and Kansas at home.

Cincinnati Bearcats 3-9 ~ 1-8 Big 12 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

The Bearcats were one of the three teams that came over from the AAC and all three struggled in their new conference while Cincinnati was the most likely for that to happen. They had only eight starters coming back along with a new head coach and the uptick in strength of schedule led to their fewest wins overall since 1999. Now in the second year in the system of head coach Scott Satterfield while bringing back close to double the number of returning starters, we should see some positive progression. Cincinnati was very good offensively, averaging 426.1 ypg which was No. 34 but it could not get into the endzone as it was just No. 84 in scoring. Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby comes into a good situation with the top rusher and receiver back along with all five starters on the offensive line returning. Averaging 24.1 ppg will not get it done as turnovers killed some good ball movement last season so mistakes have to come down. The defense allowed its most yards and most points since 2017 which happened to be its last losing season and Cincinnati hit the transfer portal hard along all three levels to improve their unit as a whole. The Bearcats have a good conference slate by avoiding Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma St. and Kansas but the tougher games are on the road.

Colorado Buffaloes 4-8 ~ 1-8 Pac 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

The Buffaloes were the story of college football heading into last season whether looking for the good or the bad and we were treated to both. Colorado opened the season 3-0 and jumped into the AP Poll at No. 18 but then things went south quickly. The Buffaloes were blown out by Oregon by 37 points which started a 1-8 run to end the season, the lone victory against 3-9 Arizona St. There were certain factors compounding the skid including injuries and a defense that could not stop anyone. Head coach Deion Sanders make his mark, which was his goal, and his coaching style from the go was not for everyone as after an unprecedented 53 transfers coming in last season, 40 players took off at the end of the year. The Buffaloes have one of the best playmakers in quarterback Shedeur Sanders who led the No. 15 ranked passing offense and also have the dynamic two-way player Travis Hunter, part of eight starters but the Buffaloes were dead last in rushing and they need to find some balance. Eight starters are back on the other side to improve the defense that finished No. 129 overall and No. 124 in scoring. The good news from the Colorado schedule is that it gets Baylor and Cincinnati. The bad news is that the other seven conference games are against teams with win totals of 7.5 or higher.

Arizona State Sun Devils 3-9 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

Last season was chalked up as a likely rebuilding season for Arizona St. under first year head coach Kenny Dillingham and that is what it turned into. It was the second straight 3-9 season for the Sun Devils following four straight winning campaigns, not counting the COVID season, and this was the first time they finished with fewer than four wins in consecutive seasons since 1946 so to say this can be considered rock bottom would not be false. Arizona St. was the only Pac 12 team that lost to Colorado but five of their losses were to teams ranked No. 18 or higher and they did have a stretch of three straight losses by one possession so they were not the worst team around. Still, it will be tough to vastly improve this season with just 10 starters back and facing the No. 3 toughest schedule in the country. There will be a quarterback battle between incumbent Trenton Bourguet and Michigan St. transfer Sam Leavitt and they have to replace their top two receivers so they will rely on leading rusher Cameron Skattebo early on. The defense was not much better but was skewed by three of the last four games where they allowed 55, 49 and 59 points when they were already toast. The nonconference slate is doable but 0-3 in still out there while the Sun Devils face five of the top six teams in the Big 12.

BYU Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

Life as an Independent treated BYU well as it could formulate its own schedule and in 12 seasons, it came away with a winning campaign in 11 of those and that was after five straight winning seasons in the MWC. So last season was one of two losing slates since 2005 as the Big 12 showed its teeth and the conference will be just as good if not better this season. The Cougars did have major injury issues midway through the season which attributed to their 0-5 finish so they are starting fresh with a good amount of experience coming back. Quarterback Kedon Slovis brought talent and experience but he struggled through eight games and missed the final four games due to arm injuries. The Cougars brought in Gerry Bohanon, who made 19 starts at Baylor and USF and they have six of their top seven receivers back as well as their leading rusher and it ultimately comes down to the offensive line to make a bigger push. The defense was good the first two games but they did hardly anything good after that, finishing No. 108 overall and No. 99 in points allowed. Injuries crushed the secondary and they are now healthy and the front seven has three real playmakers. The schedule does them no favors as they face five of the top six teams in the Big 12 but BYU does get four of those at home.

Houston Cougars 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

It has been a revolving door on the Houston sideline, whether it be a voluntary departure or a forced one, as the Cougars are now on their eighth head coach since 2000 as they parted ways with Dana Holgorsen following a 4-8 season and brought in Willie Fritz who led Tulane to a 23-4 record including a split in the two ACC Championship Games. He definitely has his work cut out for him as the Cougars were all over the place, losing games they could have won, getting blown out in others and winning three games by a combined six points. The offense showed flashes but it was too inconsistent and there were too many mistakes. Quarterback Donovan Smith threw for 2,801 yards and 22 touchdowns while he ran for 428 yards and six scores but he threw 13 interceptions and a new system should do him good. He has two solid veteran receivers returning along with leading rusher Parker Jenkins but the offensive line needs work. Defensively, Houston ranked No. 101 or worse in scoring defense, rushing defense, passing defense and overall defense, its worst total output in five years. Only five starters are back on this side as well with the transfer portal needing a big impact. Houston is another team facing five of the top six teams in the Big 12, avoiding only Oklahoma St.

2024 Big 10 Conference Preview By Matt Fargo 8-18-24

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 10 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Ohio State: 10.5 Over -150 Under +125/+155 Big 10 Winner
Oregon: 10.5 Over +100 Under -120/+200 Big 10 Winner
Penn State: 10.5 Over +140 Under -165/+500 Big 10 Winner
Michigan: 9 Over +115 Under -135/+700 Big 10 Winner
Iowa: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+3,500 Big 10 Winner
Nebraska: 7.5 Over -125 Under +105/+5,500 Big 10 Winner
USC: 7.5 Over +105 Under -125/+2,000 Big 10 Winner
Washington: 6.5 Over -105 Under -115/+8,000 Big 10 Winner
Maryland: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+10,000 Big 10 Winner
Rutgers: 6 Over -140 Under +120/+12,000 Big 10 Winner
Wisconsin: 7 Over +120 Under -140/+6,500 Big 10 Winner
Illinois: 5.5 Over +105 Under -125/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
Indiana: 5.5 Over -135 Under +115/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
Northwestern: 4.5 Over -120 Under +100/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
UCLA: 5 Over +115 Under -135/+15,000 Big 10 Winner
Michigan State: 5 Over -105 Under -115/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
Minnesota: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+18,000 Big 10 Winner
Purdue: 4.5 Over +135 Under -160/+30,000 Big 10 Winner

Coaching Changes

Indiana: Tom Allen Out ~ Curt Cignetti In
Michigan: Jim Harbaugh Out ~ Sherrone Moore In
Michigan State: Mel Tucker Out ~ Jonathan Smith In
UCLA: Chip Kelly Out ~ DeShaun Foster In
Washington: Kalen DeBoer Out ~ Jedd Fisch In

Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 ~ 8-1 Big 10 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 3-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

The last three seasons for Ohio St. have been nearly identical and the Buckeyes are looking for that to change. Three straight 11-2 finishes is fantastic but there has been one roadblock and that is hated rival Michigan. Ohio St. has gone into the season finale ranked No. 2 in the country and all three times it came away with a loss. That should reverse this year with the Buckeyes loaded roaster and the Wolverines going through some retooling. Head coach Ryan Day is an outstanding 56-8 in six seasons but the Michigan bleeding has to stop. They lost quarterback Kyle McCord to the transfer portal but got Will Howard through the portal from Kansas St. and now they have Chip Kelly calling the plays. Ohio St. lost a lot at receiver but there is plenty of depth and new blood while possessing arguably the best running back tandem in the country. The defense is even more loaded with 10 upperclassmen starting and they should be even better than their No. 4 overall ranking last season and No. 2 in points scored. The Buckeyes schedule helps out as it is in the bottom third of the Big 10 in terms of strength, partly due a nonconference slate that rivals Michigan from last year as they face Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. The two big challenges will be games at Oregon and at Penn St.

Oregon Ducks 12-2 ~ 8-1 Pac 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9

Oregon was ever so close to a trip to the CFP last season but Washington was too tough to take down twice. In two years under head coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 22-5, Washington accounting for three of the losses, Georgia being the fourth and a four-point loss at rival Oregon St. in the Civil War. Now, they head to a bigger and tougher conference but the good news is that they just as good and the expanded CFP will only help them out. The offense was potent under quarterback Bo Nix, ranking No. 1 passing and No. 2 in both total offense and scoring. Nix is now in the NFL but Oregon reloaded and brought in former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is now in his sixth season. The Ducks also lost their top running back and receiver but are not without returning star power while four of five offensive linemen are back. The defense has a ton of experience thanks to the transfer portal mostly helping the secondary that lost three of four starters. They finished No. 22 overall and should improve based on the schedule. The Ducks have a couple challenges in the nonconference with a visit from Boise St. and a trip to Corvallis while the Big 10 schedule is not bad at all as they miss Penn St., Iowa and USC and while they do play Ohio St. the game is in Eugene.

Penn State Nittany Lions 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 10 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Penn St. has been good, just not good enough. Over the last eight seasons, five have resulted in double-digit wins but there has not been a trip to the CFP and only one time did they make it to the Big 10 Championship game. Penn St. has started 5-0, 5-0 and 6-0 the last three campaigns but failed to keep it going with three conference losses to teams ranked in the top five and then were not able to fully recover. This season could be different as they are the fourth most experienced team in the conference, face a doable schedule and of course, the CFP is expanded. The offense scored 30 or more points nine times but scored only 27 points combined against Ohio St. and Michigan and they finished No. 12 overall in scoring. Quarterback Drew Allar had a 25:2 TD:INT ratio but completed only 60 percent of his passes, loses two of his top three receivers as well as three offensive linemen so it could take time. Defensively is where they will dominate again after finishing No. 2 overall and No. 3 in points allowed and the Nittany Lions are strong on all three levels to lead the team early on. Penn St. will likely get off to another undefeated 5-0 start but then there is a trip to USC. The two real tough tests after that are against Ohio St. and Washington, but those are both at home.

Michigan Wolverines 15-0 ~ 9-0 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 5

Michigan is coming off its first National Championship since 1997 in its third straight season making the CFP. The Wolverines were 84-21 under head coach Jim Harbaugh taking out the 2-4 COVID season and now that he is off to the NFL again, it will be up to former offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to keep the magic going. Moore did go 4-0 in the four games he coached when Harbaugh was suspended so he is not totally coming in raw. Michigan was gashed by the NFL Draft as it lost 16 starters and comes in as the second least experience team in the conference so while there certainly is talent, it could be a struggle early. The only starters back on offense are the tight end and one offensive lineman so there is work to be done for whichever quarterback wins the starting job. Nearly 3,000 yards of offense was lost from the running back and receiver positions. Defensively, Michigan will be much better off so even though the No. 1 ranked unit from last season will take a step down, it should be a huge descent. Only five starters are back but they are strong up front and in the middle but the secondary needs work. The schedule is a mix of brutal and easy as Michigan has Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio St. but the Buckeyes are the only game on the road of the four.

Iowa Hawkeyes 10-4 ~ 7-2 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

Similar to Penn St., Iowa has been good, just not good enough. The Hawkeyes are coming off another double-digit win season, their third over the last four years excluding the 2020 COVID season and last season, made their second Big Ten Championship game only to get ambushed by Michigan both times by a combined 68-3. Heah coach Kirk Ferenz will be entering his 26th season and after a couple rough first years following Hayden Fry, he has had only two losing campaigns over the last 23. That is consistency but consistency is not good enough unless championships are involved and Iowa could be at its closest yet. The offense has regressed the last three seasons, bottoming out last season with 234.6 ypg and 15.4 ppg, No. 133 and No. 132 respectively. New offensive coordinator Tim Lester was brought in to turn this around and part of the problem last year was that quarterback Cade McNamara was hurt in August and was never the same while missing 9 games. They have to be better. The defense had to make up for it which it did, ranking No. 7 overall and No. 4 in scoring. Eight starters are back so it should be more of the same. Iowa St. comes to visit and then there is a trip to Ohio St. followed by a home game against Washington and it is all downhill after that.

Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Nebraska is a sexy pick to make a lot of noise in the conference and it is possible with what it has on the roster but it will come down to what the so-called quarterback whisperer can do. This once Blue Blood program endured its seventh consecutive losing season in 2023, the first one for head coach Matt Rhule and you can tell the culture is changing. Even last year could have been better with even average play as the offense was stuck in neutral most of the time yet the Huskers lost five games by one possession including their last four games where a win in one of those and they were bowl bound. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola looks to be the savior as he comes to Lincoln as a five-star recruit and looks to start right away which is smart given the soft frontend schedule. Four of five starters are back along the offensive line and transfer help at receiver will ease him in. The defense kept the Huskers in those close games as in those five losses, the offense scored no more than 17 points and scored 10 three times. Eight starters are back from the unit that finished No. 11 in total defense and they will be stout again. Nebraska could and should start the season 7-0 but then come big boys with four of the last five at Ohio St., at USC, at Iowa and hosting UCLA.

USC Trojans 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 9

The Trojans were ranked No. 6 in the Preseason AP Poll, made it to No. 5 and after a 6-0 start, they suffered a 28-point loss at home to Notre Dame and the bottom fell out. That started a 1-5 run to end the regular season and it ended up being the fourth time in five seasons, not counting 2020, that they finished outside the AP Top 25. The expectations are not as high as they move to a new conference and less expectations can be a very good thing. Behind quarterback Caleb Williams, the offense was one of the best around as USC was ranked No. 10 thanks to a passing attack that was No. 5. Backup Miller Moss played in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville and he was great and should be the starter but UNLV transfer Jayden Maiva will give him a push. Each of the top two rushers and receivers are gone as well but there is good returning experienced talent to take over behind a strong offensive line. The Trojans season was lost because of the defense that allowed an average of 42.4 ppg over their last eight games, winning three of those by just 10 points combined. There is talent and experience but it will take a lot for a huge improvement. USC avoids Ohio St. and Oregon but has LSU and Notre Dame and in the Big 10, it goes to Michigan, Washington and UCLA while hosting Penn St.

Washington Huskies 14-1 ~ 9-0 Pac 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 4

It was a great story in Spokane which was expected as the Huskies came in as a Top 10 team and rolled in their first four games. Then good fortunes came in as the next 10 wins were all by 10 points or less, seven by a touchdown before getting beat by 21 points against Michigan in the CFP Championship. To their credit, good teams win the majority of those close games but great teams win them all so Washington was certainly the latter. Now it looks to be a complete rebuild with head coach Kalen DeBoer gone to Alabama and with 13 players off to the NFL and along with the transfer portal, 16 starters have to be replaced. New head coach Jedd Fisch mastered a quick three-year turnaround at Arizona and he will look to at least keep the Huskies somewhat in contention. Washington is the least experienced team in the Big 10 so there will be a lot of growing up to do. The offense was great but will have a different look with Mississippi St. transfer quarterback Will Rogers coming in and having to replace the top eight receivers and leading rusher. Defensively, the Huskies barely got by and new defensive coordinator Stephen Belichick was brought in to turn it around. A 5-0 start is likely against inferior competition to get the kinks out but then we will see what the Huskies possess.

Maryland Terrapins 8-5 ~ 4-5 Big 10 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8

Maryland has put together three straight winning seasons culminating with three bowl wins and after a rough first season in 2019, head coach Mike Locksley has job security at a non-traditional Big 10 program. The expansion of the conference further nationwide definitely helps a team like the Terrapins with greater exposure even though if it means tougher competition. That will not necessarily be the case this season but the Big 10 will never be a cakewalk so getting to eight wins again will be a challenge. What makes it even more of a challenge is that Maryland has to replace the All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa who led it to that success. There is no clear cut favorite heading into fall camp with four candidates but will likely come down to Billy Edwards, who was the Music City Bowl MVP, and NC State transfer MJ Morris. The receiving corps is loaded with six of the top eight pass catchers back as well as the top two running backs. Maryland has improved on defense yardage wise each of the last five years and the Terrapins bring back a strong front seven but do need some help in the secondary. They open the season with five games against non-bowl teams then host Northwestern. USC, Oregon, Iowa and Penn St. make up four of the final six games.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 7-6 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

After a 6-2 start last season, it was the quickest Rutgers had became bowl eligible since 2012 when it started 7-0 and last season was the first one with a winning record since 2014. It did not end well with four straight losses to end the regular season but those were all against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they closed with a Pinstripe Bowl win over Miami to bring some confidence into this season. The Scarlet Knights bring back a very experienced team, the second most experienced team in the Big 10 in fact, so they could present some problems and it helps having the second easiest schedule in the conference. The passing game was non-existent last season as Rutgers finished No. 127 in passing offense and they completed only 48 percent of their passes. They brought in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis and while he did not have a great 2023 season, he will be a big upgrade. The receiving corps is also upgraded and the leading rusher is back. The defense kept them in games, finishing No. 16 overall and eight starters are back with experience across all three levels. A game at Virginia Tech is the only nonconference test and in the Big 10, they miss Ohio St., Michigan and Penn St., which they are on a 0-27 run against, as well as Oregon.

Wisconsin Badgers 7-6 ~ 5-4 Big 10 ~ 4-6-2 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

It was not a great season for Wisconsin but not for anything else, it showed character in its first year under head coach Luke Fickell. The Badgers opened the season 5-2 but lost three straight games including a pair of losses against Indiana and Northwestern as big favorites yet they showed their fight and won in overtime against Nebraska to become bowl eligible. A win in the final week against Minnesota solidified its 22nd consecutive season with a winning record which is currently the most among all Power Four teams but beyond that, there has been nothing spectacular happening. This will be a tough season for major improvement based on the conference expansion and their schedule. The offense was average as it has been for the last four seasons and they should get a passing game going with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke coming in and he will have the top two receivers back. The running game will be fine with four of five offensive linemen returning. The defense was above average which is always the case but the 343.7 ypg allowed was the most given up since 2007 and they will improve. The schedule is the fourth toughest in the conference as Wisconsin has Alabama in the nonconference while travelling to USC, Iowa and Nebraska and hosting Penn St. and Oregon.

Illinois Fighting Illini 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Illinois head coach Bret Bielema came into a tough situation in 2021 despite 18 returning starters but the talent was not there and the Illini opened 2-5 and was unable to get that sixth win. Illinois went 8-5 in 2022, the first winning season since 2011, but took a step back last season with a 5-7 campaign that included a pair of excruciating two-point losses to end the season denying them a bowl game and it is back to the drawing board. It was not a completely lost season as the offense had its best season since 2019 and the Illini actually outgained their Big 10 opponents despite a 3-6 record but their defense let them down. Illinois was sensational in Bielema's first year but the unit dropped by 104 ypg and 16.6 ppg, despite having a First Team All American defensive end, and that is hard for an offense to make up for. The secondary was the big issue yet there is experience back there this season but now the entire defensive line has to be replaced. The offense did not have prolific numbers but actually had the third best passing attack in the conference and quarterback Luke Altmyer takes over full time and they could be potent. The Illini only have four Big 10 home games but Michigan is the only true test but of the five road games, two of those are at Oregon and Penn St.

Indiana Hoosiers 3-9 ~ 1-8 Big 10 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 11

The Tom Allen era ended after seven years that included only two winning seasons and it concluded with a 9-27 record the last three years. The Hoosiers went with an upcoming name, hiring Curt Cignetti from James Madison where he compiled a 52-10 record in five seasons including a 19-5 record at the FBS level. The 3-9 record last season, which included a win against Indiana St. of the FCS and a win over 2-10 Akron that took four overtimes, was not surprising as the Hoosiers brought back only eight starters but now have 21 of 22 starters back which does include many transfer starts with a lot of those from James Madison. The offense was abysmal but that should change with the addition of Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke who was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. Every running back is gone but Cignetti brought over leading rusher Kaelon Block with him and the receiving corps with JMU transfers. It is the same on the other side with defensive end Mikail Kamara, defensive tackle James Carpenter and linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker all coming over from James Madison. The mini Dukes have the easiest schedule in the Big 10 with games against UCLA, Michigan and Ohio St. being the only big tests while the three nonconference games should be wins.

Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 ~ 5-4 Big 10 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in July because of hazing allegations and that was probably not a bad thing anyway considering Northwestern was coming off a 4-20 record the previous two seasons. David Braum was hired from North Dakota St. where he was defensive coordinator so it was supposed to be a lost season yet the team fought through adversity with just 11 starters back and won its final three games to become bowl eligible and took out Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Repeating that success will be difficult as the Wildcats were pretty fortunate in that they won six of their games by one possession. The offense dropped 31 ypg from 2022 yet averaged 8.2 more ppg and the reason is that they had only nine turnovers which included an unthinkable one fumble. The Wildcats lose their quarterback and leading receiver but four starters return on the offensive line as well as their leading back. Defensively, Northwestern went through a stretch of allowing 20 points or less in five of six games and while they have eight starters back, there should be regression. The schedule is not great but doable. However, Ryan Field is going through renovations so five home games will be at a temporary on campus location with two others at Wrigley Field and Soldier Field so this is a big disadvantage.

UCLA Bruins 8-5 ~ 4-5 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 5

After a rough start at UCLA, Chip Kelly put together a 25-13 record over the last three seasons but he decided to leave and take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio St. which is arguably a step up and DeShaun Foster takes over where he was the running backs coach. UCLA is considered an elite high profile program but that is questionable considering is has not had a double-digit winning season since 2014 and has had consecutive double-digit winning seasons only three times in the history of the program. The defense was the catalyst as the Bruins were No. 10 in the country overall and No. 12 in points allowed but they are going to see a drastic drop in those rankings. They have only five starters back and two losses up front are probably two of the biggest in the country with edges Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy combining for 21 sacks and 37.5 tackles for loss. The offense took a huge step back from 2022, averaging 12.7 ppg and 77 ypg less and that should improve with the hiring of Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator so while there was a reversal of both units last season, it will be reversed in 2023. UCLA left the west coast only once last season when it went to Utah, but this season it leaves the time zone five times and plays the second hardest schedule in the country.

Michigan State Spartans 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 10 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The once proud Spartans program has taken a step back the last two seasons with a 9-15 record with the coaching situation turning into a mess. Mel Tucker came in during the COVID season but led Michigan St. to an 11-2 record in 2021 but then lost its last two games in 2022 to finish 5-7 and then Tucker was fired last season after a 2-0 start because of sexual allegations and the season ended up being a dumpster fire. In comes Jonathan Smith who turned around a fledging Oregon St. program with three straight winning seasons in his five years there. He has the resources and the history to turn this place around but it will not be overnight. His first job will be to try and turn around an offense that went from 31.8 ppg in 2021 to 24.4 ppg in 2022 to 15.9 ppg last season. The good news is that quarterback Aidan Chiles followed Smith to East Lansing and while he lacks experience, he is a playmaker with huge potential and already knows the incoming system. The Spartans have been a mess on defense for the last five seasons and while there will probably not be a huge improvement, a ton of starting transfer experience will make it interesting. Five straight weeks midseason against Ohio St., Oregon, Bye, Iowa and Michigan does them no favors which could cook them.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

P.J. Fleck has kept Minnesota a winning program and while last season finished 6-7, it closed with a bowl win so it was still positive. While never challenging for the Big 10 title, Minnesota has been good enough to make it to a bowl game 19 times over the last 25 seasons and while the betting win total says it will not be a good year, this team could exceed those expectations. Taking out the 2020 COVID year, this is the best five-season run for the Gophers since 2002-2006 and with the sixth most experienced team in the conference and a fairly light schedule, the run should continue. The offense dipped off considerably as it dropped by more than a touchdown per game and close to 90 yards per game but the Gophers might have brought in a weapon at quarterback with Max Brosmer who is a transfer from New Hampshire where he was a finalist for the FCS Heisman. Having the leading receiver and leading running back and four of five offensive linemen return should get the offense back on track. The defense regressed as well as it allowed nearly 13 more ppg than the previous season but eight true starters are back so the experience is there. The Gophers avoid Ohio St. and Oregon but face the next top four teams although three of those are at home.

Purdue Boilermakers 4-8 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

After five straight losing seasons, Jeff Brohm was hired in 2017 and turned Purdue around, taking the Boilermakers to a bowl game in four of his six seasons, although one of the non-bowl years was 2020 and he left for Louisville with Ryan Walters taking over last season. He was left with a bare cupboard with only five returning starters on each side of the ball and it showed with a 4-8 record, five of those losses coming by double digits. The Boilermakers are in better shape this season as they come in as the fifth most experienced team in the conference but the schedule will dictate how much, if any, progress they can make. The offense has a lot of potential with Graham Harrell as offensive coordinator and while it was not great last season, it was far from horrible with what was there. Quarterback Hudson Card has the chance to be really good and while the top four receivers are gone, this system can find replacements. Purdue took a step back defensively but not a big one and they are loaded with experience on the back end. Replacing three starters up front is a necessity but two transfers from the SEC can make a difference. The schedule is brutal as it is ranked top ten in the country in strength but at least they get Notre Dame, Oregon and Penn St. at home, not that it will matter.

2024 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview 8-17-24

By Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and ACC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Clemson: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+350 ACC Winner
Florida State: 9.5 Over -110 Under -110/+290 ACC Winner
Miami: 9 Over -125 Under +105/+400 ACC Winner
Louisville: 8.5 Over +115 Under -135/+650 ACC Winner
NC State: 8.5 Over -130 Under +110/+700 ACC Winner
North Carolina: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+3,000 ACC Winner
SMU: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+1,500 ACC Winner
Syracuse: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+4,000 ACC Winner
Virginia Tech: 8.5 Over +105 Under -125/+1,000 ACC Winner
Cal: 6 Over -105 Under -115/+9,000 ACC Winner
Duke: 5.5 Over +130 Under -150/+15,000 ACC Winner
Georgia Tech: 5 Over -120 Under +100/+7,500 ACC Winner
Pittsburgh: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+15,000 ACC Winner
Wake Forest: 4.5 Over -160 Under +135/+20,000 ACC Winner
Boston College: 5 Over +110 Under -130/+15,000 ACC Winner
Virginia: 4.5 Over +100 Under -120/+20,000 ACC Winner
Stanford: 3.5 Over -160 Under +135/+40,000 ACC Winner

Coaching Changes

Boston College: Jeff Hafley Out ~ Bill O'Brien In
Duke: Mike Elko Out ~ Manny Diaz In
Syracuse: Dino Babers Out ~ Fran Brown In

Clemson Tigers 9-4 ~ 4-4 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

A 9-4 season is considered good, if not great, for many teams but not Clemson. The Tigers had their 11-season streak of double-digit wins snapped last season and it finished outside the top 20 in final CFP Poll for the first time ever. Clemson would make a great landing spot for players in the transfer portal and its incoming number of transfers this season is zero. In the current state of college football, all programs are losing players to the portal but are getting additions to make up for it but Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney refuses to go that route and it is catching up. The Tigers do have a lot returning so all is not dire but it is young talent instead of seniors or grad transfers and that can be hard to overcome and a lot of the pressure will fall on quarterback Cade Klubnik. He was not very efficient last season, completing just 63.9 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions but he brings back three of his top four receivers in Tyler Brown, Antonio Williams, and Troy Stellato. The loss of do-it-all running back Will Shipley is a big one. Clemson finished No. 8 in total defense and they will rely on that unit to carry them again. The Tigers open with Georgia so we will see early on what this team is made up of and they benefit of having only four true road games.

Florida State Seminoles 13-1 ~ 8-0 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

The Seminoles got one of the biggest CFP shaft jobs in the nine-year existence of the playoff format as it went undefeated and won the ACC Championship Game but did not make the final four. The argument was that quarterback Jordan Travis was lost in the final regular season game so they would not be the same team and while they were blown out against Georgia, half the team did not play. Nonetheless, Florida St. is back on the map but besides Travis, it lost running back Trey Benson, and receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. The Seminoles went the transfer route and they should be ok as they got former Clemson and Oregon St. quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who brings in the duel threat, along with former Alabama running back Roydell Williams and wide receiver Malik Benson. Statistically, the Seminoles were average on offense and relied on their No. 29 ranked defense that allowed 20 points or less in 10 of 14 games and that unit will have to step up early. Overall, Florida St. only returns 56 percent of its production from the previous season, which is No. 88 in the country. They play an odd schedule with eight of their first nine games in the ACC with Memphis mixed in and they close with three nonconference games including one at Notre Dame.

Miami Hurricanes 7-6 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 7

For a third consecutive season, expectations are high in Miami and the Hurricane faithful hope that for a third consecutive season, those hopes are not dashed with early losses to derail the season. Head coach Mario Cristobal was considered the perfect hire with his program knowledge and local ties to help recruiting but he has gone just 12-13 and while he may not be on the hot seat, it is getting warm. Probably the most surprising thing about this program is that Miami has not had a double-digit winning season since 2017 which is the only one since 2003. They were decent yet unspectacular on offense last season, finishing No. 32 overall and No. 41 in scoring but they possess arguably the best trio of quarterback, running back and receiver in the ACC with Washington St. transfer Cam Ward, Oregon St. transfer Damien Martinez and 1,191-yard returnee Xavier Restrepo respectively. Ward has thrown for 13,874 yards and 119 touchdowns in four years and will open up the offense that Tyler Van Dyke could not do. The front seven on defense is the strength of the unit and the only big question is replacing two NFL safeties. They open at Florida and will likely be favored in every game going forward, should they continue to win.

Louisville Cardinals 10-4 ~ 7-1 ACC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

While Florida St. went undefeated which was considered a surprise, Louisville was arguably the bigger surprise, at least early. The Cardinals opened 6-0 but lost to Pittsburgh due to turnovers as they dominated the stat sheet and then went to 10-1 before losing to Kentucky, one of three losses to close the season. Still, it was a great season for a team picked to finish middle of the pack as first year head coach Jeff Brohm reinvigorated the program for its first double-digit winning season since 2013. Now, a talented roster in their second year in the system along with some significant transfers coming in, there is room to move even more forward. Gone is quarterback Jack Plummer but the Cardinals landed seventh year, yes seventh year, quarterback Tyler Shough from Texas Tech and he has a great receiver and tight end room to work with. Louisville was excellent on defense, ranking No. 21 overall and No. 34 in points allowed and while they lost some key players, there is plenty coming back to keep the unit a force. The strength is with the cornerbacks which is huge in a conference filled with elite passing. The Cardinals have three likely home wins to open the season before going to Notre Dame and while they also go to Clemson, they avoid three of the top five teams.

NC State Wolfpack 9-4 ~ 6-2 ACC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

NC State is coming off its fourth nine-win season in the last seven years but it has not been able to hit double digits since an 11-win season in 2002. It has been a consistent program with winning seasons in 12 of the last 14 years but is one of only two teams along with Syracuse, not counting the new members this year, to make it to the ACC Championship Game which goes back to 2005. That could change this year with some help from the teams above as NC State has the fifth easiest schedule in the ACC. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong did not live up to expectations last season and the offense suffered, finishing No. 96 overall and No. 71 in scoring and the Wolfpack brought in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina, who was outstanding in his first three years but was hurt most of last season. The receiving corps is explosive led by ACC Freshman of the Year KC Concepcion and some added transfers there and at running back will have them humming. The defense will drop off after losing the Bednarik and Butkus Award linebacker Payton Wilson but should be just fine. The Wolfpack should go 3-1 in nonconference games and ACC action opens at Clemson and closes at North Carolina with the games in-between are ones they should/will win.

North Carolina Tar Heels 8-5 ~ 4-4 ATS ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

North Carolina was pegged as one of the favorites to make a second straight ACC Championship Game appearance and after a 6-0 start, 3-0 in the ACC, it was looking good with three more winnable games before Clemson but the Tar Heels lost to Virginia as a 23.5-point favorite and the tailspin began. They lost five of their last seven games to finish 8-5 and now expectations are not nearly as high, which may not be a bad thing. North Carolina has had a winning season in four of the five seasons under head coach Mack Brown and has gone to five bowls but that is not the goal and it hopes to sneak up on teams as opposed to being the hunted. Quarterback Drake Maye is in the NFL and there is a quarterback battle going between TCU transfer Max Johnson and sophomore Conner Harrell, who has two years in the system, with the latter performing better in the spring game. There is plenty of receiver depth so while the offense will take a step back, it should not be too drastic. The Tar Heels brought in Geoff Collins as the new defensive coordinator after another disaster on that side of the ball and it will be more aggressive. The easiest ACC schedule goes to North Carolina as only Florida St. and NC State are the two teams they play with higher win projections.

SMU Mustangs 11-3 ~ 8-0 AAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

SMU was at rock bottom after the death penalty from the late 80s but over the last wo decades, the Mustangs have moved from the WAC to the American to now their current home, the ACC. SMU went undefeated in the AAC at 8-0 last season, part of a 10-2 regular season with the two losses at Oklahoma and at TCU and then defeated Tulane 26-14in the AAC Championship Game. Its reward? An invite to the Fenway Bowl against Boston College where the Mustangs lost in a game they could have cared less about. That makes the move to the ACC that much sweeter and SMU will be a tough out from the start with most every important piece back. The offense was ranked No. 16 while the scoring offense was No. 8 led by quarterback Preston Stone, who finished with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has his top seven receivers back as well as the top three running backs behind a veteran offensive line and this offense will be potent again. The defense was arguably better, ranking No. 12 overall and No. 11 in points allowed and 10 of the top 11 tacklers are back. Facing an ACC schedule may be a new, tough challenge so it may be something to monitor at first, especially with the first two ACC games against Florida St. and Louisville but eases up after that.

Syracuse Orange 6-7 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

For the second straight season, Syracuse got off to a solid start, 6-0 in 2022 and 4-0 last year only to implode when the schedule toughened up. The Orange lost their next five games before going 1-1 but head coach Dino Babers was fired after the Georgia Tech loss. Nunzio Campanile took over as the interim coach and defeated Wake Forest to become bowl eligible for a second straight season but got hammered by South Florida 45-0. Syracuse hired Fran Brown who was the Georgia defensive backs coach for two seasons and considered one of the best recruiters in the country to right the ship of a program that has won more than six games only five times since 2002 with only one double-digit win season. The big name from the transfer portal is quarterback Kyle McCord coming in from Ohio St. off a very good season. He has the playmakers to work with so the offense should improve from its No. 88 ranking. The defense finished No. 65 overall and the Orange bring back their two leading tacklers in linebacker Marlowe Wax and defensive back Justin Barron so this unit can and should improve. The good news is that Syracuse has the fourth easiest projected schedule in the country of all 82 Power Four teams as it plays only two teams ranked inside the FPI Top 30, Miami and NC State.

Virginia Tech Hokies 7-6 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 11/Defense 10

Virginia Tech is coming off its first winning season since 2019 so things could be looking up for head coach Brent Pry who enters his third season. The Hokies have just one double-digit win season in the last 12 years which came after they had eight consecutive double-digit victory campaigns under head coach Frank Beamer who left Blacksburg with 23 consecutive winning seasons. The Hokies have not come close to that success since his retirement and look to still be a middle of the conference team but there is hope for improvement. After finishing No. 61 in total offense and No. 57 in scoring offense, this should be an improved unit with plenty of experience. In a conference filled with incoming quarterback transfers, Virginia Tech has Kyron Drones returning for his second season as the starter and he has four of his top five receivers back that combined for 1,549 yards last season including Bhayshul Tuten out of the backfield who led the team in rushing with 999 yards as well. The defense improved by 55 ypg from 2022 and finished No. 20 in the country and brings back four of the top five tacklers. The Hokies should go 4-0 out of the gate in nonconference action and has a tame ACC schedule with the only big tests being at Miami and home against Clemson.

Cal Golden Bears 6-7 ~ 4-5 Pac 12 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Cal heads to the ACC from the Pac 12 where its days go all the way back to when the Pacific Coast Conference was founded in 1915. It is a tough geographical move for a Golden Bears team that did not have a winning conference season since 2009 when it was the Pac 10. However, with them moving to the ACC, it also makes numerous other teams having to travel out west so there is a give and take. Last season, Cal made it to its first bowl game since 2019 as it won its final three regular season games to become bowl eligible and while it lost to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl, it was a season to build upon. The offense was nothing spectacular as it was No. 60 overall and No. 48 in scoring with 30.2 ppg, its highest average since 2016 and it was spurned when freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza took over as the full time starter six games into the season. He returns along with running back Jaydn Ott who rushed for 1,370 yards and 13 touchdowns but transfers will have to fill the void at receiver. The defense was atrocious but led the country with 28 takeaways and they are a veteran group coming back. In the ACC, Cal has to travel to Florida St., Pittsburgh and Wake Forest but also has Miami, NC State and Syracuse coming out their way.

Duke Blue Devils 8-5 ~ 4-4 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

It was supposed to be a special season for Duke with 18 returning starters including quarterback Riley Leonard and it started 4-0 before a controversial loss to Notre Dame and then Leonard got hurt and played only seven games. The Blue Devils finished 8-5 and went 17-9 under head coach Mike Elko who left for Texas A&M and Duke hired Manny Diaz who was fired in 2021 after three seasons in Miami but had a successful two years as the Penn St. defensive coordinator. Additionally, Leonard transferred to Notre Dame and is a top five Heisman Trophy candidate so that will be a big loss. Overall, 13 starters need to be replaced and taking over at quarterback will most likely be Maalik Murphy, a four-star recruit who transferred out of Texas and brings a huge upside to the position. He has the No. 1 and No. 3 receivers returning helping the transition but lost a lot along the offensive line. Defensively, Duke was solid at No. 17 in points allowed and Diaz will keep the unit strong despite key players gone. The schedule is both good and bad as the Blue Devils open the season with four very winnable nonconference games. In the ACC, they avoid Clemson and Louisville, they only leave the state once but they miss four of the five worst projected teams.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 7-6 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

After going 10-28 under head coach Geoff Collins, who was fired four games into the 2022 season, Georgia Tech has been a different team under new head coach Brent Key as it has gone 11-10, which is nothing spectacular, but the culture change is evident. The Yellow Jackets went to their first bowl game since 2018 and defeated Central Florida 30-17 in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a winning season that included a 5-3 record in the conference with two of the losses coming against Clemson and Louisville. The offense was the strength as Georgia Tech finished No. 14 in total offense and No. 47 in scoring offense led by quarterback Haynes King who has huge upside as long as he considerably cuts down on his 16 interceptions. Additionally, 1,187-yard running back Jamal Haynes is back as well as the two leading receivers. Defensively is where the Yellow Jackets need major improvements as they finished second to last in the country in total defense with 473.5 ypg allowed. They have a lot of returning experience, whether that is good or bad, and they bring in a new defensive coordinator in Tyler Santucci. The real problem could be the schedule as it is ranked No. 10 in the country in terms of strength. They open in Dublin with Florida St. and overall face 10 bowl teams from last season.

Pittsburgh Panthers 3-9 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 4

It was a sudden fall for Pittsburgh in 2023 as following a 20-7 record the previous two seasons and finishing without a losing record since 2017, the Panthers bottomed out at 3-9, their fewest wins since 1998. The past success of head coach Pat Narduzzi secured his job but another season like that could put that job in jeopardy. The projected wins call for another tough season but if the offense can turn things around, the Panthers could surprise. The quarterback play was abysmal last season with three players seeing significant playing time and it was Nate Yarnell who arguably was the best of the three as he closed the season 1-1. He returns and will battle with Alabama transfer Eli Holstein for the starting spot on an offense that was No. 116 both overall and in scoring and will feature a new up-tempo system under new coordinator Kade Bell. The defense was certainly better than the offense but it was still an average unit that could not keep opposing offenses down enough to make up for the lack of scoring from its offense and it looks like a complete re-do with only three starters returning. The schedule features only five road games but four of those are very tough yet of the seven home games, six are more than winnable with the other being Clemson.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 4-8 ~ 1-7 ACC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 4-6-2 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Wake Forest is another team that took a hard and sudden fall in 2023. The Demon Deacons were 19-8 the previous two seasons which included an ACC Championship Game appearance and taking out the 2020 COVID year, they had six straight winning seasons but tumbled to 4-8 and finished last in the ACC at 1-7 with the only win coming against Pittsburgh by four points. A major factor, like Pittsburgh, the quarterback play was horrible split between three players so the loss of Sam Hartman to Notre Dame was clearly apparent. The Panthers should get a boost with Louisiana Tech and Boise St. transfer Hank Bachmeier coming in but they need to replace four of the top five wide receivers. Leading rusher Demond Claiborne is back to ease some of the transition to go along with an experienced offensive line. Wake Forest was slightly below average on defense and consistent as it ranked between No. 74 and No. 78 in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and rushing defense. They have seven starters back but come in ranked in the conference No. 12 up front and dead last in the secondary. Wake Forest does not leave home until October which is good early on before five of the next seven on the road with one of the home games against Clemson.

Boston College Eagles 7-6 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Boston College was one of the pleasant surprises in the ACC as it ended up 7-6 which included a 23-14 bowl win over SMU in the Fenway Bowl. The Eagles have finished with at least six wins in nine of the last 11 seasons but the problem is that they have never surpassed seven victories. Last season, Boston College was the only team in the ACC with a winning record that had a negative point differential so 2023 could have been a little bit of fool's gold. Head coach Jeff Hafley left to become the defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers and the Eagles brought in hometown native Bill O'Brien who has plenty of coaching experience at every level. Boston College was below average on both sides of the ball but it brings back 17 starters and is the fourth most experienced team in the ACC. The offense is led by quarterback Thomas Castellanos who threw for 2,270 yards and 15 touchdowns and ran for 1,113 yards but he tossed 14 interceptions so that has to be cut down. Defensively, the Eagles come in ranked between No. 13 and No. 16 on the three levels so the offense may have to carry them early on. They open at Florida St. and face eight bowl teams from last season while going against three teams coming directly off a bye so this is not any easy slate.

Virginia Cavaliers 3-9 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

Virginia is coming off its second straight three-win season although the 2022 season was cut short with two games getting cancelled because of the tragic shooting on campus. The Cavaliers were picked to finish last in the ACC in 2023 and they were close, finishing only one game from the bottom. They opened the season 0-5 before getting their first win against William & Mary of the FCS and then somehow upset No. 10 North Carolina on the road as a 23.5-point underdog and another near upset at Miami the following game took any wind out of their sails. The offense was ok at times but could not muster enough scoring to make up for the porous defense that finished No. 119 in points allowed and No. 104 overall. Eight starters are back which for a previously bad defense can be just as bad as it can be good with the balance between poor play and experience masking each other. They also have eight starters back on offense including the entire offensive line that will protect the quarterback where there is a battle between Tony Muskett and Anthony Colandrea as well as their top three rushers. The Cavaliers can go anywhere from 5-0 to 1-4 in the first five games and then it gets extremely tough down the stretch in the last seven games facing six bowl teams from last year.

Stanford Cardinal ~ 3-9 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

Stanford is the third of the new teams entering the ACC and is in the toughest spot. The Cardinal will likely be the consensus to finish last in the conference coming off its third straight 3-9 season and have the fifth toughest schedule in the country. It was not that long ago that Stanford was competing for Pac 12 Championships but it has gone downhill quickly and there will not be much room for error this season. The Cardinal bring back 18 starters, which again, can be good or bad and in this case it looks like the latter as in the ACC the only position units ranked in the top 10 are receivers and linebacker, both at No. 8. Quarterback Ashton Daniels showed some positive signs but he needs to be more consistent and accurate after completing just 59 percent of his passes and he has his top three receivers back as well as his offensive line now they need to find a running back. Stanford was one of the worst teams defensively, ranking No. 131 overall and No. 132 in points allowed and the future looks bleak. Like Cal, the Cardinal travel east three times in the conference and have three teams coming to Stanford. Over their final 10 games, they face five teams that will be coming off a bye which is the most of any team in the conference.

2024 American Athletic Conference Preview By Matt Fargo Sports

Regular Season Win Totals and AAC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Memphis: 9 Over +100 Under -130/+220 AAC Winner

USF: 7 Over -120 Under -110/+650 AAC Winner

UTSA: 8 Over -125 Under -105/+450 AAC Winner

Tulane: 7.5 Over -145 Under +115/+350 AAC Winner

Army: 6.5 Over -125 Under -105/+1,800 AAC Winner

East Carolina: 6 Over -135 Under +105/+1,800 AAC Winner

FAU: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+2,500 AAC Winner

Rice: 6.5 Over -150 Under +120/+1,400 AAC Winner

UAB: 6.5 Over +110 Under -140/+3,000 AAC Winner

Navy: 5.5 Over +115 Under -145/+4,000 AAC Winner

North Texas: 5.5 Over -145 Under +115/+2,000 AAC Winner

Tulsa: 4.5 Over -130 Under +100/+5,000 AAC Winner

Charlotte: 3.5 Over -125 Under -105/+8,000 AAC Winner

Temple: 2.5 Over -120 Under -110/+35,000 AAC Winner

Coaching Changes

Tulane: Willie Fritz Out ~ Jon Sumrall In

Memphis Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 AAC ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 10-2-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 7

It was a great 2023 for Memphis last season as it went 10-3 with the three losses coming against teams that finished with 11 or more wins. The Tigers first year in the AAC was in 2013 and resulted in a 3-9 season overall but in the 10 seasons since, they have not posted a losing overall record. Even though they have the highest O/U win total at 8.5, they are not the betting favorite to win the AAC but seem to have the most complete team led by All-AAC quarterback Seth Henigan. He threw for 3,880 yards at a 67 percent completion rate while throwing 32 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Memphis finished No. 16 in total offense and No. 6 in scoring offense but in order to take the leap forward to make the title game and try and represent the conference in the CFP, the defense has to get better. Memphis was No. 95 in points allowed and No. 112 in total defense, however, they did allow 10 points or less in three of their last four games after giving up 32 points or more in seven of their first nine games. The conference schedule is not the best with three tough road games at USF, UTSA and Tulane. Win one of those, and another 9-3 season is doable with a higher ceiling based on their elite talent.

USF Bulls 7-6 ~ 4-4 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

The Bulls had a massive turnaround last season as after four straight losing seasons, three consisting of two wins or less, they finished .500 in the conference and .500 overall and won the Boca Raton Bowl over Syracuse 45-0 to provide some strong momentum heading into this season. But was it truly a good season? While the seven wins provided some confidence, all seven of those victories were against teams that did not finish with a winning record. The last time the Bulls had a victory over a winning FBS opponent was October of 2019 so if there is going to be consistent upward movement, this has to change. USF brings back one of the better quarterbacks in the AAC with Byrum Brown who threw for 3,506 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for a team high 873 yards and 11 scores so the offense that finished No. 19 in the country overall should be just as good. But, in order to beat those better teams, the defense needs to shore up as the Bulls were No. 118 in total defense and No. 113 in scoring defense and there is experience coming back so they will be better. The AAC schedule is not horrible but the nonconference schedule includes Alabama and Miami FL.

UTSA Roadrunners 9-4 ~ 7-1 AAC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

UTSA has won 32 games over the last three seasons and after four losses in its first four bowl games going back to 2016, the Roadrunners won their first ever bowl game, a 35-17 win over Marshall in the Frisco Bowl. Now comes the challenge of replacing the best quarterback in program history. Frank Harris set school records for passing yards (11,862), passing touchdowns (92), rushing yards (2,145), and rushing touchdowns (28) as a five-year player and four-year starter. Owen McCown, who led UTSA to that bowl victory, and Eddie Lee Marburger, who also saw action last season, will battle it out for the starting job. Leading receiver Joshua Cephus is also gone but running backs Kevorian Barnes, Robert Henry and Rocko Griffin, who combined for 1,883 yards rushing, are all back to provide offensive help until the passing game gets up to par. The Roadrunners were above average on defense, led by Trey Moore who won AAC Defensive Player of the Year and set a school record with 14 sacks, but he transferred to Texas so that is a big hole to fill while the secondary has to rebuild with three starters lost. The AAC schedule is tame as they miss two of the top three teams and get Memphis at home so UTSA can make it a success.

Tulane Green Wave 11-3 ~ 8-0 AAC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Tulane had a clean run through the AAC last season as it went 8-0 but lost to SMU in the conference championship and eventually lost to Virginia Tech 41-20 in the Military Bowl but was without its head coach and starting quarterback in that bowl game. The Green Wave are the only team in the AAC with a new head coach as Willie Fritz took the job at Houston and taking over is Jon Sumrall who comes over from Troy where he went 23-4 in two years as head coach. In order to continue his success and the recent success of the program, he needs a quarterback to step in and excel. Tulane is another team that has to replace a record-breaking quarterback with four-year starter Michael Pratt moving on and it will be a two-man competition with veteran backup Kai Horton and Oregon transfer Ty Thompson battling it out. The offense will lean on running back Makhi Hughes who rushed for 1,466 yards and seven scores as a freshman. The Green Wave were strong on the other side, ranking No. 39 in total defense and No. 24 in scoring defense and Sumrall is a great defensive coach, leading Troy to the No. 13 ranked defense last season. Their two toughest AAC games are at home so they should be contending again.

Army Black Knights 6-6 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 3

Army is a conference member for the first time in 19 years and it should be a seamless transition. The Black Knights were inconsistent last season as they had some really good wins to counter some really bad losses to finish 6-6 but were ineligible for a bowl game as two of those six wins were against FCS teams. They have not had a losing season since 2019 and look to be in very good shape in extending that streak. One thing is certain as Army will run the triple option which is difficult to prepare for to begin with but now it will be facing some teams that have never seen it so surpassing its No. 11 rushing offense from last season is likely. Quarterback Bryson Daily led the team in rushing and he returns for his senior season while the top three running backs also are back. On the other side, the Black Knights finished No. 54 in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense and the first team defensive depth chart consists of all juniors and seniors so this team is loaded with experience. The schedule sets up very well for Army to get back to a bowl as in the conference, it avoids Memphis, Tulane, and USF and in nonconference games besides Navy and Air Force, they have Lehigh and Notre Dame. This could be a real sleeper team to make a championship run.

East Carolina Pirates 2-10 ~ 1-7 AAC ~ 5-7 -0ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

It was a miserable campaign for East Carolina as it went 2-10 with one of those wins against Gardner Webb of the FCS and the only FBS win was against Florida Atlantic which was in a rebuild. The Pirates have had only two winning seasons since 2014 but those were in 2022 and 2023 so last season could be considered an anomaly should they bounce back which is expected as there was very little experience on the roster last year especially on the offense. East Carolina hit the transfer portal hard to improve that offense that finished No. 130 overall and No. 127 in scoring, bringing in Michigan St. quarterback Katin Houser, South Carolina wide receiver O'Mega Blake, and West Virginia/Florida St. wide receiver Winston Wright Jr. The offensive line lacked experience and it will be far better off in 2024. The defense was far from horrible as the Pirates were No. 38 overall and No. 40 in points allowed with only SMU and UTSA scoring 30 or more points in conference games and while they did lose a few key pieces, portal arrivals should keep the unit strong. The nonconference schedule is not horrible and in the AAC, East Carolina misses Memphis and USF while facing the bottom three projected teams.

Florida Atlantic Owls 4-8 ~ 3-5 AAC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8

Lane Kiffin put together two 11-3 seasons in his three-year tenure in 2017 and 2019 but Willie Taggart was unable to keep that sustainable. Tom Herman was brought in to revitalize the program and while the Owls finished just 4-8 in his inaugural season, it was a better season than the record showed. Florida Atlantic lost four games by one score and had a lopsided win over USF and now in his second season knowing the players and bringing in some of his own, Herman should have the Owls turn the corner. The offense had a huge drop-off from the previous two seasons as they finished No. 102 in total offense and No. 89 in scoring offense and they turn to Marshall transfer Cameron Fancher at quarterback where he was average but has better personnel around him. The defense stayed level from 2021 and 2022 but it was not good enough to make up for the regression of the offense and the defense is now loaded with experience. Florida Atlantic faced six bowl teams last season and this year, the schedule is one of the easiest in the country and it faces only two bowl teams from last season, UTSA and USF. The Owls open at Michigan St. and then have winnable games against Army, FIU and Connecticut.

Rice Owls 7-6 ~ 4-4 AAC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Rice is coming off its first six-win season since 2014 but it could not carry that into a bowl win as it lost to Texas St. 45-21 in the First Responder Bowl. There is plenty of veteran experience back on both sides of the ball so while that normally could mean an even better season lies ahead, the schedule is not on the Owls side. Rice was inconsistent on both sides of the ball, ranking No. 84 in total offense and No. 56 in scoring offense and No. 53 in total defense and No. 83 in scoring defense. The reason for the yardage and scoring discrepancies on both sides were because of turnovers as the Owls had 26 giveaways and a -14 in turnover differential which were No. 126 and No. 128 in the country. To state the obvious, that has to be cleared up. On offense, the Owls got Temple transfer quarterback EJ Warner who should help immediately as he will be working behind four returning starters along the offensive line. The lack of takeaways hurt the defense and Rice was just 1-7 when it allowed more than three touchdowns. The schedule is a tough one as Rice faces the top four teams in the AAC, two at home and two on the road and the only real tough nonconference test is at Houston. Six wins are again doable but it will come down to Warner and the limiting of turnovers.

UAB Blazers 4-8 ~ 3-5 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 4

UAB finished just 4-8 a season ago in the first year under head coach Trent Dilfer, its first losing season since 2013. The Blazers had only one quality victory and of the eight losses, the first seven were all by double digits so the record indicates what transpired on the field. The issue was inexperience as UAB used 15 freshmen, 10 on defense which was by far the worst unit. The Blazers finished No. 121 in total defense and No. 130 in scoring defense but that experience will pay off in 2024 and their 21 takeaways were tied for No. 33 in the country which helped stop some of the bleeding. The potent offense has the chance to be just as good if they can find replacements for their leading receiver and rusher. The offense is led by Jacob Zeno who threw for 3,126 yards and 20 touchdowns last year while completing a school record 73.6 percent of his passes. He will have a veteran unit in front of him as the offensive line has a lot more experience than last season as four of five starters are back. UAB could use a 3-1 record in their nonconference games against Alcorn St., UL Monroe, Arkansas and Connecticut as the conference schedule is not in their favor with games against Tulane, USF and Memphis, the latter two on the road.

Navy Midshipmen 5-7 ~ 4-4 AAC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 4-7-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7

It was another tough year for Navy which has now had four straight losing seasons and to put that in perspective, not counting the COVID year, the Midshipmen had only two losing campaigns in its previous 17 seasons. This is the worst run since losing five years in a row from 1998-2002 and not making it five straight this season is realistic. Navy has been known for its strong rushing game for many years but the 194.6 ypg was the worst since 2001 (again, not counting 2020) when it averaged 182 ypg. The Midshipmen were 2-6 when failing to reach 240 rushing yards so the turnaround looks simple, get back to running the ball as first year head coach Brian Newberry tried to increase the passing game which did not go well, averaging just 105.7 ypg. Quarterback Blake Horvath has some decent experience and the job will be his to lose and he has the top three running backs returning to keep the offense in synch. The defense was outmatched against Notre Dame, USF and SMU but held its own outside of those games, finishing No. 47 in total defense and No. 39 in scoring defense. The back end of the defense will be the strength again. The schedule has three very likely wins and three very likely losses with the six toss up games all taking place on the road.

North Texas Mean Green 5-7 ~ 3-5 AAC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6

North Texas has been stuck in neutral after consecutive nine-win seasons in 2017-2018 as it has not finished over .500 since then. The Mean Green started off 3-3 last season but then faced the top four teams in the AAC and lost all of those games and were eliminated from bowl contention. Four of the seven losses overall were by one possession so it could have been a better season and the blame can be put on the defense that finished dead last in the country, allowing 476.4 ypg while the 37.1 ppg given up was No. 131. Clearly, this is an area that has to be improved and it can only go up from last season and there is a decent amount of experience returning. In order for it to be a successful season, the defense will likely have to make huge strides because the offense has plenty of question marks. Quarterback Chandler Rogers was sensational but he transferred out to California and North Texas has only one starter back from an offense that was No. 6 in the country and that is right guard Gabe Blair. Overall, the Mean Green lost their top five running backs and three of their top four receivers. The schedule is not ideal with nonconference games against Texas Tech and Wyoming and only avoid USF of the top four in the AAC.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 4-8 ~ 2-6 AAC ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 4

Tulsa is coming off a 4-8 campaign in the first season under head coach Kevin Wilson, the fourth time in the last seven seasons it has had four or fewer victories. The struggles were very evident, quarterback and defense. How bad was the quarterback play last season? Despite being tied at No. 21 in rushing attempts and finishing with the sixth highest run rate in the country, Tulsa had the second most interceptions thrown with 19. The Golden Hurricane utilized four different quarterbacks so there was no comfort level and it will likely be up to two of those, Cardell Williams and Kirk Francis, to battle it out and establish as the true No. 1 that will avoid mistakes. The running game will be just fine once again as Anthony Watkins and Bill Jackson, who combined for 1,303 yards, both return. While a quarterback needs to make this a stable offense, the defense needs a big turnaround. Tulsa finished No. 127 in total defense and No. 120 in scoring defense and when the offense finishes No. 121 in total turnovers, this will not do it. The personnel is in place for improvement and the one aspect they would like to carry over were the 21 takeaways, tied for No. 33. The AAC schedule is the easiest in the conference so a .500 season is in reach if those vital areas improve.

Charlotte 49ers 3-9 ~ 2-6 AAC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 5

Since entering the FBS in 2015, Charlotte has had only one winning season when it went 7-6 in 2019. The 49ers moved to the AAC last season, coming over from C-USA and it duplicated its record from 2023 where it went 3-9 overall and 2-6 in conference games. Biff Poggi is entering his second season as head coach after coming from Michigan where he was associate head coach and it was evident he brought that same culture with him. The defense saw major improvements as it had its best season since 2018 as the 49ers finished No. 61 in total defense. They did allow an unproportional amount of points but a lot of that was due to the offense turning it over 22 times, putting the defense in tough places. The defense was good enough to win but the offense struggled mightily. Charlotte was ranked No. 118 in total offense and No. 226 in scoring offense as it was held to just 17.5 ppg. With plenty of experience in the backfield and a stronger offensive line thanks to the transfer portal, it comes down to the quarterback battle between Florida transfer Max Brown and incumbent Trexler Ivey. It will be tough to surpass the 3.5 wins with nonconference games against James Madison, North Carolina and Indiana and a tough AAC slate.

Temple Owls 3-9 ~ 1-7 AAC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

While not quite to same degree, this recent Temple run is looking similar to the 2003-2006 Temple teams when it went a combined 4-42 in its final two years in the Big East Conference and two years as an Independent. The recent Owls have gone 10-33 the last four seasons, including just four AAC wins, so while it is not as dire, the five consecutive winning seasons prior to this seem like eons ago. Blowouts were common and Temple finished with the worst scoring differential in the conference at 14.6 ppg. The good news is that they are in the third season under the systems of head coach Stan Drayton but the bad news is that they have lost most of their talented played from 2023 so it is looking like yet another rebuild. Gone is quarterback EJ Warner who transferred to fellow AAC team Rice and on the other side, the front seven was hit hard with the losses of Layton Jordan and Jordan Magee in declaring for the NFL Draft. Junior Forrest Brock is the only quarterback to have thrown passes with the Owls and those amount to only 15. There is limited experience at running back and receiver as well. Defensively, the early depth chart shows seven transfers on the first team. The schedule is not great which will make it even tougher for Drayton to keep his job.

Yankees vs. White Sox: Betting Preview, Odds, and Why New York Can Secure the Win 8-13-24

The New York Yankees are set to face the Chicago White Sox in Game 2 of their series on Tuesday, with Nestor Cortes taking the mound against Jonathan Cannon. As the Yankees push for a playoff spot, every game matters. Here’s a detailed preview of the matchup, including projected starters, odds, and why the Yankees are positioned to secure a win.

Yankees vs. White Sox Projected Starters

Nestor Cortes, who holds a 5-10 record with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, will start for the Yankees. Cortes struggled in his last outing against the Angels, allowing six runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings. However, he has the experience and skill to bounce back, especially against a White Sox lineup that has had its share of offensive struggles this season.

Jonathan Cannon, with a 2-5 record, a 3.91 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP, will pitch for the White Sox. Cannon has been solid at home, boasting a 2.90 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. His ability to limit damage will be tested against a powerful Yankees lineup.

MLB Odds: Yankees vs. White Sox

New York Yankees: -1.5 (-185)
Moneyline: -290
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: +240
Over/Under: 9 (-105/-120)
These odds suggest that the Yankees are strong favorites, but as always, anything can happen in baseball.

Despite a rocky season for Nestor Cortes, the Yankees have the upper hand in this matchup. Cortes' unique pitching style, with varying arm angles and a deceptive delivery, could exploit the White Sox's offensive weaknesses. The Yankees' offense, driven by stars like Aaron Judge, ranks among the league's best in home runs and slugging percentage, posing a significant challenge for Cannon and the White Sox bullpen.

Additionally, the Yankees have performed well on the road this season, showing resilience and the ability to win under pressure. With the postseason in sight, every win is crucial for New York, making this game an important step in their journey. Expect the Yankees to capitalize on scoring opportunities and Cortes to deliver a performance that keeps them in control.

Trends

Chi White Sox are 2-24 SU in their last 26 games.
Chi White Sox are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games at home.
NY Yankees are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games against an opponent in the American League Central Division division.

Conclusion

As the Yankees aim to continue their playoff push, their matchup against the White Sox presents a strong opportunity to secure a win. With favorable odds and a powerful lineup, New York is well-positioned to come out on top in this crucial game.

Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers: Game Preview, Predictions, and Key Insights 8-12-24

Game Overview The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers are set to clash in an AL showdown at Fenway Park, Boston. The weather forecast for Monday evening is partly cloudy, with temperatures in the upper 70s. The Red Sox enter as favorites on the money line at -135, while the Rangers are listed at +115. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET, and you can catch the action live on ESPN.

Starting Pitchers Brayan Bello takes the mound for the Red Sox, facing off against Tyler Mahle of the Rangers. The Red Sox hold a 61-55 record, while the Rangers stand at 55-63. Both teams occupy the third spot in their respective divisions, with the Red Sox in the AL East and the Rangers in the AL West. The over/under is set at 9.5 runs.

Recent Trends and Key Stats

• Texas Rangers: The Rangers have struggled on the road, going 1-4 in their last five away games and 2-3 against the runline.

• Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have fared better at home, with a 3-2 straight-up (SU) record and a 3-2 runline record in their last five games.

• Red Sox as Favorites: Boston has gone 5-5 SU in their last ten games as favorites, with a 4-6 runline record.

• Rangers as Underdogs: Texas has won 3 of their last 10 games as underdogs, with a 5-5 runline record.

Game Prediction The Rangers aim to bounce back after a tough 8-7 loss to the Yankees, where they squandered a late lead. Despite their struggles, the Rangers’ offense remains potent, with Carson Kelly and Nathaniel Lowe both hitting home runs in their last outing. Texas is 3rd in the AL West, trailing the Mariners by 7.5 games. They’ve struggled in divisional games, with a 14-18 record.

On the road, Texas has a 24-36 record and has lost five straight series, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Rangers’ run differential is telling: they win by an average of 3.8 runs but lose by the same margin. Their runline record is 50-68 overall, including 26-34 on the road.

The Rangers have seen their last two games go over the total, with their games averaging 8.7 runs this season. The over/under for today’s game is set at 9.5 runs, a mark the Rangers have surpassed in 6 of their 8 games this season when set at this line.

Tyler Mahle’s Outlook Tyler Mahle will make his second start of the season for the Rangers. In his debut, he took the loss against the Astros, allowing 1 earned run over 5 innings.

Rangers’ Key Players Corey Seager has been on fire, hitting .289 with six homers and 11 RBIs in his last nine games. He leads the Rangers with 61 RBIs and 25 homers this season. Adolis García follows with 18 homers, though he’s hitting just .220.

Boston Red Sox’s Recent Performance The Red Sox are coming off a 10-2 loss to the Astros. James Paxton struggled, giving up two runs in just two-thirds of an inning. Boston has lost four straight games and holds a 61-55 record, placing them 3rd in the AL East. They’re 27-31 at home this season.

Boston’s runline record has been better on the road (33-25) than at home (21-37). Their average run margin is +0.2, but it drops to -0.6 at Fenway. The Red Sox have lost three straight at home against the runline.

Boston’s games have averaged 9.7 runs this season, with a 61-49 over/under record. When the line is set at 9.5, they’re 7-8.

Brayan Bello’s Performance Brayan Bello will start for Boston, sporting a 10-5 record with a 5.16 ERA. He’s made 21 starts, with opponents hitting .268 against him. Bello has seven quality starts but has gone winless in his last four outings, all resulting in no-decisions.

Boston’s Key Players The Red Sox are averaging 4.9 runs per game, ranking 4th in the league. They’ve been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs. Rafael Devers has been a standout, leading the team with a .300 batting average, 71 RBIs, and 25 homers. Jarren Duran and Tyler O’Neill have also been solid contributors.

Final Prediction Our prediction: Boston 6, Texas 4. We recommend taking the Red Sox on the money line at -125. 

Brewers Eye Sweep as Frankie Montas Faces Braves in Final Showdown MLB Free Pick 8-8-24

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to wrap up their series against the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, with newly acquired right-hander Frankie Montas taking the mound. After dominant victories of 10-0 and 8-5, the Brewers are on the verge of a three-game sweep against a slumping Braves team.

The Brewers, who have surged to a six-game lead in the National League Central, are seeking their third consecutive win against the Braves, giving them a 4-2 season series lead. Meanwhile, Atlanta has dropped four straight, tumbling to the third and final NL wild-card spot, clinging to a narrow half-game lead over the New York Mets. Thursday's game marks Montas' 21st start of the season and his second since joining Milwaukee from Cincinnati at the trade deadline.

In his Brewers debut, Montas delivered a solid performance, earning a win against the Washington Nationals by allowing three runs over five-plus innings with five strikeouts and no walks. 'I've been in this spot before,' Montas said postgame. 'The key for me is staying composed and just being myself out there.

Montas faces a formidable test against Atlanta's Charlie Morton, who will start for the Braves. Morton, who has rebounded from a rough outing against the Mets, where he allowed seven runs (five earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, returned to form against Miami on August 1, giving up only an unearned run over six innings.

'I felt good about my delivery and my four-seamer,' Morton commented. 'As long as those are working, I'm confident, even if I give up a few hits. Morton, with a career 5-8 record and 3.91 ERA in 17 starts against Milwaukee, will have to contend with a Brewers lineup that's been red-hot, producing 16 hits in each of the last two games.

Rhys Hoskins has been a standout, extending his hitting streak to 12 games, batting .326 during that span with four home runs and nine RBIs. Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio have also been key contributors, going 5-for-8 and 5-for-11, respectively, in the series. Willy Adames, who had a quiet game on Wednesday after a 4-for-5 performance in the opener, has been on fire since July, hitting .310 after a slow start to the season.

Despite Atlanta’s struggles, they showed signs of life on Wednesday by snapping a 24-inning scoreless streak. Austin Riley delivered a double, a home run, and three RBIs, while Orlando Arcia extended his on-base streak to a career-best 19 games. Following Thursday's matinee, the Braves will embark on a 10-game road trip, starting with a series against the Colorado Rockies. The Brewers will head home to begin their own 10-game homestand, opening with a crucial series against the Cincinnati Reds."

Lean Atlanta Braves -130 Listed Pitchers only

Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Game Prediction

NCAA Athletes to start being paid?

12-12-23

NCAA President Charlie Baker wants College Sports to become where athletes can be paid

A significant call for change echoes through college sports as NCAA President Charlie Baker proposes a groundbreaking shift, advocating for well-funded schools to compensate their athletes. In a letter addressed to over 350 Division I institutions, Baker urges the association to establish a new tier within NCAA Division I. This tier would mandate schools to allocate a minimum of $30,000 annually to at least half of their athletes via a trust fund.

Additionally, Baker recommends extending unlimited educational benefits to all Division I schools and permitting them to engage in name, image, and likeness (NIL) licensing agreements with athletes. He underscores the pressing challenges arising from the stark resource disparities between the elite subset of Division I institutions, primarily in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), and the rest of the members across Division II and III.

"The challenges, spanning competitiveness and financial realms, are compounded by the convergence of NIL opportunities and the advent of the Transfer Portal," highlighted Baker, who assumed the NCAA presidency in March.

Scheduled to address the Sports Business Journal’s Intercollegiate Athletic Forum in Las Vegas, Baker's proposal aims to establish a new subdivision encompassing all sports. This subdivision would allow the wealthiest athletic departments within the Power Five conferences—Big Ten, Southeastern Conference, Big 12, Atlantic Coast Conference, and Pac-12 (excluding the Pac-12 due to an upcoming realignment in 2024)—to operate distinctively while still competing within Division I.

Importantly, this shift wouldn't necessitate entire conferences to join the new subdivision; individual schools would have the autonomy to opt-in.

Baker underscored the vast financial spectrum within Division I, ranging from athletic budgets of $5 million to $250 million annually. Notably, 59 schools surpass the $100 million mark, while another 32 exceed $50 million. Conversely, 259 Division I schools operate on budgets below $50 million for their athletic programs.

The dichotomy between revenue-generating sports like major college football and basketball and the majority of college sports complicates the overarching efforts to modernize the collegiate sports landscape, Baker pointed out.

Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez, speaking at the Sports Business Journal’s Intercollegiate Sports Forum, interpreted the subdivision concept as a means to facilitate governance rather than exclusion from championship events or revenue loss for certain schools.

Baker and other college sports leaders have been actively appealing to Congress for federal legislation to regulate athlete compensation for NIL deals. Their advocacy has received support from influential figures like Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith, who oversees an expansive athletic department with operating expenses exceeding $225 million annually.

Former USC and NFL star Reggie Bush, who was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame, hailed the move to compensate athletes as long overdue. Bush's collegiate career at USC was marred by an NCAA impermissible benefits case that led to the vacation of a national title and his 2005 Heisman Trophy.

Baker’s letter marks a bold initial step toward a seismic transformation within the NCAA. However, translating this vision into comprehensive legislation will require extensive member input, substantial work by the Division I Council, and final approval from the Division I Board of Directors. Presently, there is no defined timeline for the proposal's fruition.

Concurrently, the NCAA faces new legal challenges that could mandate revenue sharing from major college football and basketball, potentially reclassifying athletes as employees. One ongoing antitrust case could entail substantial financial repercussions for the NCAA.

Baker urged NCAA member schools to establish a new framework facilitating "fundamental changes." His recommendations include empowering Division I institutions to offer enhanced educational benefits and engage in NIL agreements with athletes. Present NCAA rules allow schools, though not mandatory, to provide athletes with $5,980 yearly in educational benefits.

Moreover, Baker emphasized that these changes would contribute to balancing opportunities between men's and women's athletics by enforcing gender equity regulations in investment strategies. He proposed that institutions within the new Division I tier invest a minimum of $30,000 annually into an enhanced educational trust fund for at least half of their eligible student-athletes while complying with Title IX.

A new Division I subdivision should also enable members to devise unique rules regarding scholarships, recruitment, transfers, and NIL, Baker added.

Jon Steinbrecher, the Mid-American Conference Commissioner, views Baker’s proposal as an articulation of the existing reality: the financial segregation of power conference schools and their autonomy within NCAA legislative procedures. Contrary to speculation about a breakaway of power conferences, Steinbrecher believes this proposal alleviates such pressure and tensions within the NCAA.

Navigating the World of Sports Picks: Seeking Reliable Guidance

12-11-23

Introduction:

In the realm of sports betting, enthusiasts often seek the holy grail of accurate predictions to enhance their chances of success. Many individuals turn to various sources for sports picks, hoping to gain an edge in predicting the outcomes of their favorite games. However, determining who truly has the best sports picks is a complex task that requires careful consideration and a discerning approach.

The Landscape of Sports Picks:

Expert Analysts and Pundits:
Many sports analysts and pundits provide predictions based on in-depth research, statistical analysis, and their understanding of the game. These experts often have a wealth of knowledge and experience, making their insights valuable for bettors. Checking the track record and credibility of these analysts can help gauge the reliability of their picks.

Algorithmic Predictions:
Some platforms utilize sophisticated algorithms to analyze historical data, player performance, and various other factors to generate sports predictions. While these algorithms can be powerful tools, it's essential to understand their methodologies and assess their historical accuracy.  

Community Forums:
Online forums and communities allow sports enthusiasts to share their predictions and insights. While community-driven picks can provide diverse perspectives, it's crucial to approach them with caution, as the expertise of contributors can vary widely.

Subscription Services:
Certain websites and services offer premium sports picks for a fee. These services claim to provide exclusive insights and analyses. Before subscribing, it's important to research the service's reputation, track record, and customer reviews to ensure transparency and reliability. 

Considerations for Choosing Reliable Sports Picks:

Transparency:
Look for sources that are transparent about their methodologies, data sources, and historical performance. Reliable predictors should be willing to share their track records and demonstrate accountability. 

DETAILED RECORDS: http://topsportscappers.com/leaderboard.php

Consistency:
Consistency in performance over time is a key indicator of reliability. Analyze past predictions to determine if the source consistently demonstrates accuracy in a variety of sports and events.

Realistic Expectations:
Beware of sources that promise guaranteed wins or unrealistic success rates. Sports betting inherently involves an element of unpredictability, and no one can guarantee specific outcomes.

User Reviews:
Reading user reviews and testimonials can provide valuable insights into the experiences of others who have used the service or followed the predictions. However, be discerning and consider a range of opinions.

Conclusion:

In the search for the best sports picks, it's crucial to approach the decision-making process with caution and skepticism. There is no one-size-fits-all answer, and the reliability of sports predictions can vary widely. Conduct thorough research, assess the credibility of sources, and remember that successful sports betting requires a combination of knowledge, strategy, and a responsible approach to risk.

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Top Sports Cappers Pick 10/12/2023

The Kansas City Chiefs had a strong showing in Week 5, much to the chagrin of online sportsbooks that had to pay out big. Their victory moved them to a 4-1 SU (Straight Up) record and 3-2 against the closing NFL odds. This places them at the top of the AFC West standings as they prepare for a divisional showdown against the Denver Broncos under the Thursday Night Lights in Week 6. What's even more astounding is that the Chiefs are gunning for their sixteenth straight win against the Broncos, having swept their divisional rivals for the last seven seasons. As the NFL betting market suggests, the point spread is on the rise in favor of the Chiefs for this Week 6 matchup.

NFL Week 6 Betting Odds

• Denver Broncos +10.5
• Kansas City Chiefs -10.5
• Total: 48
• Money Line: Broncos +447, Chiefs -600

Kansas City Chiefs Week 6 Matchup

On Thursday, October 12, 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Kickoff for Thursday Night Football is set for 8:15 p.m. ET with television coverage on PRIME VIDEO. The initial betting line for this AFC West showdown had the Chiefs favored by 10 points with a total set at 51. However, it didn't take long for NFL bettors to push the spread to -10.5, though it's worth noting that reduced -103 juice is currently attached to the Chiefs side of the wager. Early betting reports indicate that 20 percent of bets and 27 percent of the money are leaning towards the home team, showing that public bettors are boosting the point spread higher. Despite the shift in the odds, the Chiefs are considered the superior team, both on paper and in terms of their win-loss record. The Broncos' defense has struggled significantly, ranking last in rushing defense (No. 32) and 29th in pass defense. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes has yet to lose to the Broncos in his 11 career starts against them, throwing for 2,959 yards with an 18:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Kansas City has a seven-game winning streak against the Broncos at home, with four of those victories covering the spread, and an average of 41.4 points scored per game.

Kansas City Chiefs Week 5 Recap

In Week 5, the Kansas City Chiefs secured their fourth consecutive win, even though it wasn't a particularly pretty victory. They managed to overcome the Minnesota Vikings, largely thanks to an early turnover that swung the game in their favor. The final score was 27-20, and it was a much lower-scoring game than many total bettors had anticipated. The game also saw star tight end Travis Kelce briefly leave the field due to injury but return with his ankle taped to score a crucial touchdown. The Chiefs were favored by 3 points at kickoff, with the line initially opening at -6. Despite the betting line movement, the Chiefs prevailed by a 7-point margin, forcing sportsbooks to pay out to those who favored the road chalk with Kansas City. The game was a tightly contested battle, with the Chiefs outgaining the Vikings 333-329 and earning 21 first downs compared to the Vikings' 18. The defense played a significant role in the victory, thwarting two of the Vikings' four red zone appearances and limiting a hobbled Justin Jefferson. While the victory was crucial for the Chiefs, it raised questions about their performance, with some suggesting that their success might be influenced by officiating calls in their favor.

Kansas City Chiefs: A Rich Legacy

The Kansas City Chiefs, founded in 1960 as the Dallas Texans, were charter members of the American Football League (AFL). Lamar Hunt, the team's owner and founder of the AFL, was instrumental in the league's formation. After winning the AFL championship in 1962, the Texans moved to Kansas City, where they became the profitable franchise we know today.

The Chiefs enjoyed great success from 1966 to 1971, playing in the first Super Bowl but losing to the Green Bay Packers. They returned to the Super Bowl in 1970 and defeated the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV. The merger of the AFL and NFL followed that historic game.

The Chiefs have a storied history, with legendary figures like coach Hank Stram, quarterback Len Dawson, kicker Jan Stenerud, and a host of Hall of Famers. They went through a period of relative obscurity from 1974 to 1988 but returned as perennial contenders in the 1990s, thanks to team president Carl Peterson and coach Marty Schottenheimer.

It was under the leadership of Andy Reid that the Chiefs returned to the Super Bowl, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes emerged as a superstar. In 2020, they secured their second Super Bowl victory, exactly 50 years after their first title.

The Chiefs continue to be a prominent team on the NFL landscape, with several prime-time matchups scheduled for the 2023 season, reflecting their status as a marquee TV property.

In conclusion, the Kansas City Chiefs have a rich and storied history, and their current success is a testament to their legacy. As they face the Denver Broncos in Week 6, they aim to continue their winning streak and solidify their position at the top of the AFC West. With a blend of star power and a passionate fan base, the Chiefs remain a force to be reckoned with in the NFL.

FREE PICK: UNDER 48

Mastering the Odds: In-Depth Analysis of the Top Sports Handicappers

Introduction

Sports handicapping, the art of predicting the outcomes of sporting events, has evolved over the years from an informal hobby into a serious profession. Expert sports cappers, or handicappers, have become integral figures in the sports betting world. With their deep knowledge, analytical skills, and access to data, these individuals have proven to be highly valuable resources for sports enthusiasts and bettors alike. In this article, we'll take an in-depth look at some of the top sports cappers, their methods, and the impact they have on the sports betting landscape.

What is Sports Handicapping?

Sports handicapping is the practice of analyzing and predicting the outcomes of sporting events. Handicappers use various methods, including statistical analysis, historical data, and insider information, to make informed predictions. These predictions can be used for betting purposes, fantasy sports, or even simply for bragging rights among friends.

Top Sports Cappers: A Closer Look
Jimmy the Greek: Jimmy "The Greek" Snyder is often considered one of the pioneers of sports handicapping. He gained fame in the 1970s as a CBS NFL Today analyst and was known for his predictions and charisma. His ability to combine statistical analysis with an engaging presentation style made him a household name.

Billy Walters: Billy Walters is a legendary figure in sports betting. Although he's not a public handicapper, his influence on the industry is undeniable. He's known for his extensive network of contacts in the sports world and his use of advanced analytics to gain an edge in sports betting.

Jon Price: Jon Price is a contemporary sports handicapper who has gained recognition for his success in predicting NFL games. His firm, Sports Information Traders, has a strong online presence and offers sports betting tips and predictions to subscribers.

Haralabos Voulgaris: Haralabos Voulgaris, often referred to as "Bob," is a prominent NBA bettor. He's renowned for his deep understanding of basketball and his data-driven approach to betting on the NBA. While he's not a public figure in the same way as others on this list, his influence on NBA betting is significant.

Methods and Strategies

Top sports cappers employ various strategies and methods to make their predictions. Some of the most common approaches include:

Statistical Analysis: Many handicappers rely on in-depth statistical analysis to identify patterns and trends in a team's performance. This includes looking at player statistics, team records, and historical data.

Injury and Team News: Staying up-to-date with injury reports, team news, and insider information can provide a significant advantage. This information often impacts a team's performance and can be critical for making accurate predictions.

Advanced Analytics: Some cappers use advanced analytics and predictive modeling to gain an edge. This may involve utilizing machine learning algorithms and data mining techniques to identify potential outcomes.

Bankroll Management: Successful sports cappers understand the importance of bankroll management. They employ strategies to protect their capital and minimize risk, such as unit betting and establishing clear bankroll limits.

Line Shopping: To maximize potential profits, cappers often "shop" for the best odds and lines across different sportsbooks. This allows them to get the best possible value for their bets.

The Impact of Sports Cappers

Sports cappers play a significant role in the sports betting world. Their insights and predictions influence betting markets, and their success can drive traffic to sportsbooks and subscription-based services. While some cappers aim to provide valuable information and insights to the public, others focus on their own profitability.

However, it's important for bettors to exercise caution and do their due diligence when following the advice of sports cappers. While many are reputable and genuinely skilled at what they do, the industry is not without its share of fraud and dishonesty.

Conclusion

Top sports cappers have a unique and influential role in the world of sports betting. With a combination of expertise, data analysis, and a deep understanding of their chosen sports, they have the potential to provide valuable insights for those looking to enhance their sports betting experience. As with any form of investment, it's essential to approach sports handicapping with a critical eye, understanding that success is never guaranteed, and responsible betting practices should always be a priority.

Dallas Cowboys 2023 NFL Team: A Season in Review 10-5-2023

The Dallas Cowboys, one of the most iconic teams in the National Football League (NFL), had an eventful 2023 season. Here’s an in-depth look at their performance, key players, and notable games.

Season Overview
The Dallas Cowboys had a strong start to the 2023 season, with a record of 3 wins and 1 loss1. They played their home games at the AT&T Stadium1. The team’s performance was marked by some standout performances from key players.

Key Players
Dak Prescott, the team’s quarterback, had an impressive season. In one of the games, he passed for 261 yards and scored a touchdown1.

Tony Pollard was another standout player for the Cowboys. He showcased his versatility as both a receiver and a rusher, with 13 receiving yards and 47 rushing yards in one game1.

Michael Gallup, a wide receiver for the Cowboys, also had a strong performance with 60 receiving yards in one game1.

CeeDee Lamb was another key player for the Cowboys. He had 36 receiving yards and scored a touchdown in one game. He also rushed for 12 yards.

Notable Games
One of the most notable games of the season was against the New England Patriots on October 1, 2023. The Cowboys won this game with a score of 38-31. This game was particularly noteworthy due to the strong performances from Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb1.

Another significant game was against the San Francisco 49ers on October 8, 2023. This game was part of an early tough stretch in October for the Cowboys.

Looking Ahead
The Dallas Cowboys have shown great promise in the 2023 season. With their strong roster and impressive performances, they are poised to continue their success in future seasons. Fans and analysts alike will be eagerly watching to see how they perform in upcoming games.

For more detailed information about each player and their stats, you can visit the official NFL website  https://www.nfl.com/teams/dallas-cowboys/roster

For more information about their schedule and upcoming games, you can visit the Dallas Cowboys’ official website https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/nfl-releases-full-2023-dallas-cowboys-schedule

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants 10-2-2023

The Seattle Seahawks (2-1) are favored by -1.5 points versus the New York Giants (1-2) on October 2, 2023, starting at 8:15 PM ET, airing on ABC/ESPN. The matchup has an over/under of 47.5 points.

Seahawks vs. Giants Prediction & Pick
Pick ATS: New York (+1.5)
Pick OU: Under (47.5)
Prediction: New York 26 - Seattle 21

Seahawks vs. Giants Recent Matchups
Over their last five meetings, Seattle has put up five wins versus New York.
In their last five head-to-head matchups, Seattle has compiled 148 points against New York, while allowing only 62 points.

The New York Giants are searching for answers and they face the task of playing Seattle on a day of the week the Seahawks own and in a stadium where they have never lost.

The puzzling Giants (1-2), who were overmatched by both Dallas and San Francisco, will host the Seahawks (2-1) on Monday night. The Seahawks won 27-13 last year when the teams played at Seattle.

Having the game at the Meadowlands is not going to make things any easier for the Giants.

The Seahawks are 5-0 at MetLife Stadium, including the only Super Bowl title in franchise history. Three of the five wins have come against the Giants. And they are 28-12 all-time on Monday night, a .700 win percentage that is the best of any team.

This also can be viewed as a must-win for New York, with games at Miami and Buffalo to follow.

“I mean it’s definitely still early, this is not a must game I would say,” Giants defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “It’s not something that’s going to keep us out or keep us in the playoffs at the end of the year, but at the same time we try to look at the season like quarterly.”

Being 1-3 would not be ideal.

The Seahawks have won two in a row, and Seattle coach Pete Carroll said his team is getting healthier.

“This is a classic opportunity for us to go against a team that’s got to have a win. We’ve got to have one too,” he said.

SAQUON BARKLEY 
Giants star running back Saquon Barkley sprained his right ankle in a win at Arizona on Sept. 17 and had to sit out the following Thursday night at San Francisco.

Barkley will have had 11 days since suffering the high ankle sprain, and it’s uncertain whether he will play. He practiced on limited basis all week and has been listed as doubtful to play. The last time he had a high ankle sprain was in 2019 and he missed three games.

Matt Breida replaced Barkley against the 49ers, who limited the Giants to 29 yards rushing. Breida led the team with four carries for 17 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks have the league’s second-worst pass defense, so New York may just throw more.

RUN GAME
The Giants had one of the worst defenses in the league against the run last season, and nothing seemingly has improved despite signing inside linebacker Bobby Okereke and defensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches.

New York is ranked 29th against the rush, giving up an average of 138 yards. San Francisco gained 141 its 30-12 victory, which featured bad tackling by Wink Martindale’s unit.

“We put an emphasis on it today at practice,” Okereke said Thursday. “I had a coach always tell me that tackling is all about technique and desire. We all have a great desire to tackle, now it’s just cleaning up the technique and we’ll get it right.”

Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet combined for 143 rushing yards for Seattle last week.

LOOKING AHEAD
Seattle has had a unique scouting opportunity for each of its past three opponents. All three played a prime-time game on either Thursday or Monday the week prior to playing the Seahawks, allowing Seattle’s coaches and players a little additional look at their next opponent.

Detroit played the first game of the season at Kansas City before playing Seattle in Week 2. Carolina had a Monday night game six days before playing at Seattle in Week 3. And last Thursday night, the Giants played at San Francisco.

“I like it, it’s a good opportunity, you just get the feel of the teams, they’re talking about the players and styles and the background, and the camps,” Carroll said. “You just get a lot of the additional information.”

OFFENSIVE LINE 
The Giants will have a fourth different offensive line. They had hoped to get left tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring) back this week but he was ruled out Saturday. Josh Ezeudu will start again for him. Ben Bredeson (concussion) returns at left guard with rookie John Michael Schmitz at center, Marcus McKethan at right guard and Evan Neal at right tackle. Schmitz and Neal are the only two to start all three games.

Seattle Betting Info
Seattle has covered the spread two times in 2023.
The Seahawks have been favored by 1 point or more two times this season, and covered the spread in one of those contests.
Seattle games this year have gone over the total in two out of three opportunities (66.7%).
The Seahawks have been moneyline favorites in two other games this season, and they split them.
Seattle has played as a moneyline favorite of -115 or shorter in only two games this season, and it split 1-1.
Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Seahawks' implied win probability is 53.5%.

Seattle's Key Players
Offense
Kenneth Walker III's rushing output this season includes 204 yards and four TDs. He is averaging 68.0 yards per game and 4.3 per attempt (19th in the NFL).
Walker has 10 targets, eight receptions, 73 receiving yards and zero TDs in the passing game.
Geno Smith has 736 passing yards (10th in the NFL), four touchdowns and one interception this year. He has completed 68.9% of his attempts, averaging 245.3 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
Through three games played, D.K. Metcalf is averaging 78.0 yards and 5.0 receptions per game to total 234 receiving yards and 15 catches. He's been targeted 19 times, and has one receiving touchdown.
Tyler Lockett has racked up 103 receiving yards and two touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) with 13 catches on 21 targets. He's averaging 4.3 receptions and 34.3 yards per game.
Defense
On defense, Julian Love has 27 tackles in 2023.
Jordyn Brooks has 32 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 0.5 sacks this season. His tackle total .
Bobby Wagner has recorded 33 tackles and 1.0 TFL.
So far this season, Jarran Reed has 13 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks. He's fifth on the Seahawks in tackles.

New York Betting Info
New York is winless against the spread this year (0-3-0).
The Giants have been underdogs by 1 point or more two times this year and have not covered the spread once.
New York games have gone over the total once this season.
The Giants have lost both games they've played as underdogs this season.
This season, New York has been at least a -105 underdog on the moneyline two times, losing each of those contests.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 51.2% chance of a victory for the Giants.

New York's Key Players

Offense
Daniel Jones has thrown for 562 yards this year, with two touchdowns and four interceptions. He is completing 64.9% of his attempts while averaging 187.3 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt.
Jones has also rushed for one touchdown and 107 yards (second on the Giants).
Saquon Barkley has 114 rushing yards (leading the Giants) and one rushing touchdown, while averaging 57.0 yards per game and 3.9 per carry (26th in the NFL).
Barkley has added nine receptions (4.5 per game) for 41 yards (20.5 per game) with one receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 11 times in the passing game.
So far this season, Darren Waller has caught 12 passes for 132 receiving yards without a touchdown in the passing game. He has been targeted 20 total times and is averaging 4.0 receptions per game in three games played.
Darius Slayton has nine catches for 109 yards without a receiving touchdown. He averages 3.0 yards per game through three games and has been targeted 17 times.

Defense
Micah McFadden's 2023 output includes 24 tackles and 5.0 TFL in three games. He leads the Giants in tackles.
Jason Pinnock has 23 tackles and 3.0 TFL. He is second on the Giants in tackles.
Bobby Okereke has 22 tackles and 1.0 TFL during the 2023 season.
Xavier McKinney has totaled 18 tackles.

SPORTS BETTING IN THE NFL

Published: 09/09/2023
The National Football League (NFL) has strict rules and policies in place regarding sports betting to maintain the integrity of the game and to prevent potential issues related to gambling. Here are the key rules and policies that NFL players and personnel are required to follow:

No Betting on NFL: Players are prohibited from betting on NFL games, which includes not only regular-season games but also events like the NFL Draft. This rule is emphasized the most due to the potential integrity concerns that arise if individuals involved in the league wager on its outcomes.

No Betting Through Others: Players are not allowed to have someone else place bets on their behalf. This rule aims to prevent players from indirectly participating in sports betting.

No Gambling in Team Facilities: Players are not permitted to engage in any form of gambling while inside team facilities. This includes not only sports betting but also casino games and card games. Additionally, using mobile sportsbooks during road games or while staying at team hotels is also prohibited.

No Sharing Inside Information: Players should not share or misuse any inside information related to injuries, game plans, or other confidential team matters for gambling purposes. This rule is crucial to maintain the fairness and integrity of the game.

No Retail Sportsbook Visits During the Season: Players should not visit retail sportsbooks during the NFL season. This is to avoid any appearance of impropriety and to prevent potential conflicts of interest.

No Daily Fantasy Football: Players are not allowed to participate in daily fantasy football contests. This rule aligns with the league's stance on sports betting and gambling-related activities.

For coaches, staff, and other non-player personnel, the rules are even stricter, and they are generally discouraged from wagering on any sports at any time to avoid any potential conflicts of interest.

Violating these rules can result in serious consequences, including suspensions and fines. The NFL takes these rules seriously to protect the integrity of the game and to ensure that players and personnel do not compromise the fairness of NFL competitions.

It's essential for everyone associated with the NFL to be aware of and adhere to these rules to maintain the league's reputation and the trust of fans and stakeholders.

It's clear from the examples of Jameson Williams and Nicholas Petit-Frere that there can be misunderstandings or oversights when it comes to the NFL's strict betting policies, especially for rookies who may not be fully aware of the rules. To address this and ensure that rookies are well-informed about these policies, the NFL has taken steps to provide additional education.

Starting in 2023, rookies are required to watch an additional training video provided by the NFL compliance team. This video is designed to emphasize the importance of maintaining the integrity of the game and to educate rookies about the specific rules and guidelines related to sports betting. The video likely covers topics such as:

The prohibition against betting on NFL games.
The ban on wagering in team facilities.
The consequences of violating these rules.
The importance of avoiding any actions that could compromise the fairness and integrity of NFL competitions.
By requiring rookies to watch this training video, the NFL aims to ensure that all new players are well-informed about the league's betting policies and the potential consequences of non-compliance. This proactive approach helps reduce the chances of unintentional rule violations and underscores the league's commitment to maintaining the integrity of its games. It also eliminates any excuses rookies might have for not being aware of these policies.

The survey conducted by ESPN, which included responses from over 50 NFL players, highlights the potential confusion and lack of awareness among players regarding the league's gambling policies, particularly those related to betting at team facilities and on sports other than NFL games. To address these concerns and improve player education, the NFL has implemented several measures:

Mandatory Gambling Policy Education: The NFL mandates that all players receive education on the league's gambling policies. This education is crucial in ensuring that players understand the rules and consequences related to sports betting.

In-Person Training Presentations: In 2023, the NFL has strongly encouraged all teams to conduct in-person training presentations conducted by members of the NFL's compliance team. These presentations likely provide a comprehensive overview of the league's gambling policies, including the ban on betting in team facilities.

Player Manuals: The full gambling policy is included in the league's player manual, and players are required to sign to acknowledge that they've received the manual and are aware of all policies. This reinforces the league's commitment to educating players about its rules.

Integrity Clause in Contracts: NFL contracts include an "integrity of the game" clause, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the integrity and fairness of NFL competitions.

Signage Across Facilities: Teams display gambling policy signage throughout their facilities to remind players of the rules and guidelines. This ongoing reinforcement helps ensure that players remain aware of the policies throughout the season.

Agent Education: Agents are also offered gambling policy training, allowing them to better understand the rules and advise their clients accordingly.

Responsible Gambling: Players are instructed about the importance of responsible gambling when adhering to NFL rules. This education encourages players to bet responsibly and within the confines of league policies.

While these measures demonstrate the NFL's commitment to educating players and personnel about its gambling policies, it's clear from the survey that there may still be some confusion and room for improvement. The league continues to take steps to ensure that all individuals associated with the NFL are well-informed about the rules surrounding sports betting to maintain the integrity of the game.

It appears that the NFL's increased educational efforts regarding its gambling policies have been positively received by some players, at least based on the feedback from Detroit Lions cornerback Jerry Jacobs. He mentioned that the league, or at least his coaching staff, has been clearer about the policies, particularly the one related to betting from inside the team facility. This suggests that the additional education may be helping players better understand the rules and guidelines surrounding sports betting.

However, the true effectiveness of these educational measures may become clearer as the NFL season progresses and whether news of player infractions related to gambling policies surfaces. The ultimate goal of the NFL is to reduce or eliminate rule violations and maintain the integrity of the game. The league's emphasis on the simple rule of never betting on NFL games is a crucial message to convey to all players and personnel to prevent potential issues.

It's important to continue monitoring the situation and player compliance throughout the season to assess the long-term impact of these educational efforts. The hope is that these measures will contribute to a better understanding of the rules and result in fewer violations in the future.

Illinois vs Kansas for the Big Ten-Big12 Showdown 9-8-23

The upcoming college football game between Illinois (1-0) and Kansas (1-0) has several interesting storylines and key aspects to watch for:

Game Details:

Date and Time: Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Line: Kansas by 3
Series Record: Illinois leads 3-2
What is at Stake:

Kansas aims to continue its non-conference momentum after a 5-0 start last season, which led to their first bowl game appearance since 2008.
Illinois, coming off a last-second win over Toledo, is looking to build confidence as they prepare for a challenging matchup against seventh-ranked Penn State.
Key Matchup:

Illinois QB Luke Altmyer will face off against the Kansas pass defense, which had some struggles in their win over FCS-level Missouri State last weekend. Altmyer, a transfer from Ole Miss, had an impressive performance in his debut for the Illini, throwing for 211 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score.
Players to Watch:

Illinois: Keep an eye on DB Miles Scott, who made his first career start memorable with a 48-yard interception return for a touchdown against Toledo. He was named the Big Ten's co-defensive player of the week.
Kansas: The quarterback situation is worth watching. Whether Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean starts, their performance will be crucial. Bean had a strong outing with 276 passing yards and two touchdowns in the season opener.
Facts & Figures:

The history between Illinois and Kansas dates back to 1892, with Kansas winning the last meeting in 1968.
Illinois had an impressive comeback win against Toledo, rallying from a 19-7 deficit to win 30-28.
Kansas is seeking to start 2-0 in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2008-09.
Devin Neal, a key player for Kansas, needs 109 rushing yards to reach 2,000 for his career.
Notably, the Kansas men's basketball team will play an exhibition game in Illinois to benefit relief efforts in Maui, marking Jayhawks coach Bill Self's return to State Farm Center since leaving Illinois for the Kansas job.
This matchup promises an exciting game with both teams looking to maintain their early-season success and build momentum for the future.